May: what will the weather be like in Brazil?

The forecast from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) for the month of May indicates a tendency for above-average rain in a large part of the North and South regions, east of the Southeast Region and the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba, as well as in areas punctual areas in the center-south of the Northeast Region (blue tones on the map in figure 1a). In the extreme north and south of the North Region, north of the Northeast Region, Center-West Region and interior of the Southeast Region, in addition to areas in the center-north of Paraná, rain close to and below average is expected (shades of gray, yellow and orange on the map in figure 1a).

Rain events in the north and east of the Northeast Region cannot be ruled out, due to the action of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ZCIT), as well as the warming of the Tropical Atlantic.

Considering Inmet's climate forecast for May/2024 and its possible impact on the 2023/24 grain harvest for the different producing regions, it is worth highlighting that the Matopiba region (a region that encompasses areas of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) has been presenting satisfactory soil moisture levels in recent months, favoring the development of first and second harvest crops.

For May/2024, the forecast of rain close to and above average in the region could benefit the productive potential of crops being developed and harvested. However, normally from the month of May onwards, there is a reduction in rainfall in the interior of Brazil, particularly in the semi-arid northeast. Thus, some areas in the north of Minas Gerais, the central part of Bahia, the south of Tocantins, the border of Mato Grosso and Goiás, the west of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul may experience a reduction in soil moisture levels.

In the South, East of São Paulo and Southwest of Mato Grosso do Sul regions, above-average rainfall accumulations are predicted (gray and blue tones on the map in Figure 1a) for the month of May/2024, maintaining water levels in the soil and favoring the management and development of first and second harvest crops, but they can interrupt the harvest in some areas. However, in the western part of Paraná, there is the possibility of water restriction in crops where the forecast indicates rainfall slightly below average (yellow tones on the map in figure 1a), which could affect the development of crops that are in phenological stages of greater need. water.

Temperature

The forecast indicates that temperatures should be above average in practically the entire country, mainly in the central portion of Brazil (indicated on the map in orange – figure 1b). In the North and Northeast regions, temperatures can exceed 26ºC. In the Southeast Region, temperatures should vary between 20ºC and 22ºC. Lower values ​​are predicted for the South Region, below 20ºC. In higher altitude areas of the south and southeast region, temperatures close to or below 14ºC are expected.