Inmet: weather forecast between April 22nd and May 8th, 2024

Between the 22nd and 29th of April, the week could see large amounts of rain, which could exceed 80,0 mm, especially in the north of the country

22.04.2024 | 15:22 (UTC -3)
inmet

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) today concluded the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between the 22nd and 29th of April, the week could see large amounts of rain, which could exceed 80,0 millimeters (mm) - shades of red - especially in the north of the country, due to the combination of heat and high humidity , in addition to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ZCIT) that continue to influence instability in the region, causing intense rains. 

Forecast for the 1st week (22/04/2024 to 29/04/2024):

North region: Rain showers are forecast throughout the week, with amounts greater than 70,0 mm in areas of Amazonas, Roraima, Pará and Amapá, which may be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and thunderstorms. In other areas, isolated rain showers with minor accumulations cannot be ruled out.

Northeast Region: ZCIT's actions will cause areas of strong instability in the north of the states of Maranhão, Piauí and Ceará, with rainfall exceeding 70 mm. In the eastern part, accumulations greater than 60 mm are expected, mainly in areas of Sealba (a region that encompasses the states of Sergipe, Alagoas and Bahia). Highlights include the coast of Bahia, where significant rainfall of over 100 mm can occur, due to the transport of moisture from the ocean to the continent. In the interior of Bahia, there is no rain forecast.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: It will be hot and dry weather in much of the region, except in the northwest of Mato Grosso and northern Espírito Santo, where rapid and temporary rains are expected.

South region: The week begins with a storm due to the heat and high humidity in areas of Rio Grande do Sul. However, throughout the week, a frontal system over the ocean will still cause intense rain over Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. 

Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (22 and 29/04/2024); source: Inmet
Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (22 and 29/04/2024); source: Inmet

In the second week, between April 30th and May 8th, 2024, the week may present rainfall volumes greater than 70,0 mm in the north and south of the country.

Forecast for the 2st week (30/04/2024 to 08/05/2024):

North region: Accumulations greater than 70,0 mm are predicted in much of the region, except in areas of Acre, Tocantins, as well as southern Pará and Rondônia, with volumes of less than 50 mm.

Northeast Region: the forecast is for rain in the form of showers that could exceed 70,0 mm in the north of the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará and the eastern part of the region. In other areas, lower rainfall accumulations are expected.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: The forecast is for dry and hot weather in much of the region, except in the northwest of Mato Grosso, southeast of São Paulo and the extreme south of Mato Grosso do Sul, which is expected to experience rainfall that could exceed 60 mm.

South region: the forecast is for rain showers that could exceed 70,0 mm in the north of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and south of Paraná. In the rest of the region, the forecast is for lower accumulations.

Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (30/04/2024 and 08/05/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA
Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (30/04/2024 and 08/05/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA
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