Inmet: weather forecast between September 25th and October 10th, 2023

In the first week, between September 25th and October 2nd, the highest rainfall accumulations are predicted in the South Region of the country, especially in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina

25.09.2023 | 16:59 (UTC -3)
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The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) concluded today (25/9) the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between September 25th and October 2nd, 2023, the largest accumulations are expected in the Southern Region of the country, especially in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, in addition to areas in the northwest of Brazil.

In areas of the Northeast Region, east of the North Region and north of Minas Gerais, high temperatures, dry weather and low humidity are expected to predominate practically throughout the week.

Check out the detailed weather forecast for each region of the country for the next two weeks below.

Forecast for the 1st week (25/09/2023 to 02/10/2023):

North region: Rainfall volumes greater than 50 millimeters (mm) are predicted in the northwest of Amazonas and the extreme west of Acre due to the heat and high humidity. In a large part of Pará, Amapá and Tocantins there will be a predominance of dry weather and no rain, while in other areas low volumes of less than 30 mm are expected.

Northeast Region: there is a forecast of dry weather without rain, in addition to low relative humidity values, mainly in areas of Matopiba (an area that covers the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) and the interior of the region.

Midwest region: the persistence of a mass of hot and dry air at the beginning of the week will leave the weather stable and without rain, in addition to low relative humidity values, below 30%. However, over the weekend, areas of instability will favor the occurrence of rain showers in a large part of the region, especially in the south of Mato Grosso and Goiás.

Southeast region: the weather will also be dry and without rain, mainly in areas of the center and north of Minas Gerais and west of São Paulo. Still in the north of Minas, low relative humidity values ​​can be recorded, below 20%. In areas in the south and east of the region, storms and thunderstorms can occur on most days, with accumulations that can exceed 50 mm in the south of Minas Gerais and between the states of Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro.

South region: The formation of an extratropical cyclone at the beginning of this week will intensify areas of instability that will cause significant rainfall accumulations, which could exceed 80 mm, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Cataria and southern Paraná. After this system moves to the ocean at the end of the week, the weather will be dry in Rio Grande do Sul, maintaining instability only in areas of Santa Catarina and Paraná.

Figure 1: Rain forecast for the 1st week (25/09/2023 and 02/10/2023); source: Inmet
Figure 1: Rain forecast for the 1st week (25/09/2023 and 02/10/2023); source: Inmet

In the second week, between the 3rd and 10th of October 2023, the week may present large amounts of rain, greater than 90 mm, in a large part of the South Region. In areas of the northwest of the country, the volumes may exceed 50 mm .

In areas of Central Brazil, rain showers and accumulated lows may occur, which will be less than 30 mm. In the far north of the country, dry weather and no rain are expected throughout the week.

Forecast for the 2st week (03/10/2023 to 10/10/2023):

North region: Accumulated rainfall is expected to exceed 30 mm in the northwest of Amazonas and Acre. In other areas of the region, low volumes of rain, less than 20 mm, may occur, while in Amapá and northern Pará there is no rain forecast.

Northeast Region: Accumulated rainfall of less than 20 mm is predicted in areas of Bahia and southern Matopiba (an area that covers the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia). On the east coast, rain showers may occur and in areas in the north of the region there will be dry weather and no rain throughout the week.

RMidwest and Southeast regions: there is a forecast of rain showers and volumes that should not exceed 40 mm. In eastern areas of the Southeast Region, rainfall volumes may be greater than 50 mm, especially on the coast of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and southern Minas Gerais.

South region: there is a forecast of accumulated rainfall greater than 90 mm, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, west of Santa Catarina and south of Paraná. In the extreme north of Paraná and east of Santa Catarina, volumes can be less than 40 mm.

Figure 2: Rain forecast for the 2nd week (03/10/2023 and 10/10/2023); source: GFS
Figure 2: Rain forecast for the 2nd week (03/10/2023 and 10/10/2023); source: GFS
Mosaic Biosciences March 2024