Coffee: weather conditions in Brazil signal challenges for the 2024-25 harvest

The current focal point in the coffee market revolves around weather conditions in Brazil, especially in relation to the development of the 2024/25 harvest. This is what the recent Hedgepoint Global Markets report shows.

“This phase is crucial as it marks the filling stage, and historical data indicates that inadequate precipitation during this period can significantly affect yields. A point of concern is evident in the Três Pontas region in Minas Gerais, where accumulated rainfall levels from October to the third week of December are alarmingly 30% below the normal range. This region depends heavily on precipitation, making the situation worrying”, says Natália Gandolphi, the company’s coffee analyst.

Meanwhile, in Espírito Santo, specifically in the São Mateus region, the situation is getting worse. Despite most areas of the state being equipped for irrigation, the São Mateus region received only 20% of the expected rainfall during the same period.

The hydrological balance in the Southeast is similar to that recorded in 2020, which generated the crop failure of the 21/22 cycle. During this period, average coffee productivity fell by 3% compared to the previous negative biennial year (19/20), a result of unfavorable weather conditions. Compounding concerns, forecast models indicate a continued reduction in the hydrological balance until the first week of January.

“The predicted rains may not be enough to replace the recent impact. Projections indicate that the regions in the south of Minas Gerais, Mogiana and Paraná may only receive up to 80% of normal levels of precipitation. This forecast raises concerns about the potential impact on coffee production in these areas”, explains the analyst.

In short, the coffee market is closely following the weather conditions in Brazil, especially in the southern regions of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, represented here by Três Pontas and São Mateus, respectively. Below-normal precipitation levels pose a significant threat to the 24/25 harvest, evoking the challenges faced in 2020 that resulted in a drop in coffee production. The expected continuation of unfavorable weather patterns increases concerns, making it necessary to keep this point on the radar in the coming days.