Winter will be influenced by El Niño

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) forecast for winter, which officially begins this Friday (21) and runs until September 23, indicates a greater than 50% probability of El Niño remaining during the period. The data, generated by the main international meteorological centers, according to the report, reveals that the phenomenon of warming of Pacific waters is expected to last until mid-spring.

This warming has resulted in an increase of 0,5ºC in temperature. From mid-spring until the first fortnight of this month, the water temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean has been showing values ​​above 0,5ºC, which characterizes an El Niño phenomenon of weak intensity, highlights the Inmet report.

El Niño, categorized as a climate anomaly, recurs at irregular intervals, which usually vary between two and seven years. The event occurs due to the abnormal warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, more precisely in areas close to the west coast of Peru and neighboring countries. The impacts are varied, given the dimensions of the Brazilian territory and its climate diversity. In some areas, it produces extreme droughts and, in others, it raises temperatures.

Northern Region

The forecast indicates that during the next months from July to September the average air temperature will remain within the average and above, mainly in the southeast of Pará. The conditions of lack of rain, high temperature and low relative humidity. The occurrence of possible cold episodes in the south of this region cannot be ruled out.

North East Region

In the Northeast Region, the Inmet bulletin indicates the predominance of areas with a greater probability of rain within or below the climatology, mainly on the east coast, where the rainy season is approaching its end. In most of the region, the temperature will remain close to average, while in the interior the dry period begins and the forecast is for slightly higher temperatures and low levels of relative humidity, mainly in the south of Piauí and in the west of Bahia.

Midwest region

In the Central-West Region, the trend is for relative humidity to decrease in the coming months, with daily values ​​that may be below 30% and minimum peaks below 20%. The forecast for winter indicates a high probability of rain occurring within or slightly below the climatological average in much of the region, with temperatures above average, due to the persistence of dry and hot air masses, mainly in the months of August and September.

Southeast

The quarter from June to August corresponds to the driest period in the region, especially in the north of Minas Gerais. Rainfall is expected to remain within or slightly above average, especially in September, in the south of São Paulo. Temperatures are expected to remain above average in much of the region, and there may be a sharp decline in temperatures in higher places, due to the passage of more continental cold air masses.

South

Rainfall will occur above average in much of the South Region. The greater frequency of cold fronts will contribute to greater variations in temperatures throughout this quarter. However, average temperatures are expected to remain above the climatological average, except in the southern half of Rio Grande do Sul and eastern Santa Catarina, where winter is expected to occur within normal limits with minimum temperatures reaching values ​​below 0ºC in mountainous and plateau areas, mainly in the month of July.