Inmet today released its new Climate Prognosis for the winter of 2024. In the Southern Hemisphere, winter begins on June 20, 2024, at 17:51 pm, and ends on September 22, at 9:44 am (Brasília time). Climatologically, the season is marked by the least rainy period in the Southeast, Central-West regions and part of the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, while the highest volumes of precipitation (rain) are concentrated over the northwest of the North Region, east of the Northeast Region and part of the Southern Region of Brazil (figure 1a).
The reduction in rainfall in a large part of the country at this time of year is due to the persistence of dry air masses, which cause a decrease in relative air humidity, which consequently favors an increase in the incidence of fires and forest fires, as well as increase in respiratory diseases.
In addition to a lower incidence of solar radiation, the season is also characterized by the incursions of cold air masses, coming from the south of the continent, which cause a drop in air temperature, resulting in average values below 22ºC over the eastern part of the regions. South and Southeast of Brazil (figure 1b). This decrease in temperature can cause: formation of frosts in the South, Southeast and Mato Grosso do Sul regions; snowfall in the mountainous areas and plateaus of the South Region and episodes of cold weather in Mato Grosso, Rondônia, Acre and southern Amazonas.
During the season, due to thermal inversions in the morning, the formation of fog and/or humid fog is common in the South, Southeast and Center-West regions, with reduced visibility, especially on roads and airports.
Northern Region
In a large part of the North Region, the CPTEC/Inmet/Funceme climate forecast indicates favorable conditions for the occurrence of rain close to or below average (figure 2a). Only in the extreme north of Roraima, Amapá and northwestern Amazonas, the forecast indicates favorable conditions for above-average rain.
Air temperatures in the coming months are predicted to feature above-average conditions across much of the region (figure 2b). It should be noted that the lack of rain in the south of the Amazon is common between the months of July and September and, combined with the high temperature and low relative humidity, favors the incidence of fires and forest fires. On the other hand, this does not rule out the occurrence of possible cold episodes in this region, due to the incursion of continental masses of cold air.
North East Region
The forecast indicates a predominance of rain close to the average in the northeastern interior, as this area is in its dry period. In the rest of the region, the forecast indicates slightly below average rainfall conditions (figure 2a). It is worth noting that the occurrence of intense rain is not ruled out for the coast of the Northeast Region due to the persistent anomalous warming of the waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Regarding temperature, the forecast indicates a predominance of above-average temperatures throughout the region for this winter (figure 2b).
Midwest region
In the Central-West Region, the dry period began in May and in recent weeks below-average rainfall has been observed in much of the region. The forecast for winter indicates rain conditions below the climatological average throughout the region, with a tendency for relative air humidity to decrease in the coming months, with daily values that may be below 30% and minimum peaks below 20% (figure 2a).
Temperatures tend to be above average, due to the persistence of dry and hot air masses, favoring the occurrence of bushfires and forest fires (figure 2b).
Southeast
As in the Central-West Region, the month of June tends to be drier and, in recent weeks, there has been a reduction in rainfall in some locations in the Southeast Region, mainly in the states of São Paulo and Espírito Santo. The forecast for winter in the Southeast Region indicates a predominance of below-average rainfall, however the occurrence of slightly above-average rainfall in specific areas of the southern coast of São Paulo cannot be ruled out, due to the passage of cold fronts (figure 2a).
Temperatures tend to remain above average in a large part of the region, however the possibility of a drop in average air temperature due to the entry of cold air masses on some days cannot be ruled out, with the possibility of frost formation in isolated points in regions with high altitude (figure 2b).
South
The CPTEC/Inmet/Funceme forecast for the winter months indicates favorable conditions for above-average rainfall in the central and eastern part of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and southeastern Paraná. In other areas, the forecast indicates rain conditions close to and below average, mainly in the north of Paraná (figure 2a).
Above-average temperatures are predicted for the South Region for most of the winter, mainly in Paraná, where the highest values are predicted (figure 2b). For the center-south of Rio Grande do Sul, temperatures close to average are predicted. It is worth noting that the incursion of air masses of polar origin may cause a decline in temperatures over a few days, enabling the occurrence of frost in some locations, especially those at higher altitudes.
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