Wheat harvest should be marked by rationalization of resources

The scenario of rising input prices requires planning to reduce winter farming costs, but without compromising production potential. See what the trends are for the next harvest and the guidelines for better rationalization of the resources that will be invested in wheat cultivation.

In the last two years, the rise in input prices accompanied the price of grains on the international market. In wheat, the main production costs are inputs (fertilizers, pesticides and seeds) and crop operations (fuel, cultural treatments, transportation). The biggest increase was in fertilizers, which rose more than 100% in the last year.

In Deral/PR's production cost estimate, in the 2022 harvest, wheat farming should cost R$4.223,27/ha. The inputs that most impacted the increase were fertilizers, which make up 27,25% of variable costs, machine and implement operations which represent 10%, pesticides with 8,48% and seeds with 7,37%. According to the agronomist from Deral/PR, Carlos Hugo Godinho, considering the current price of R$ 88,00/sc of wheat, productivity needs to reach 48 sc/ha to break even, but the average productivity in Paraná is last five years it has been 42 sc/ha. “We saw a 73% increase in wheat production costs in Paraná compared to the 2021 harvest”, explains Godinho.

He remembers that corn, wheat's main competitor in northern Paraná, is also at high prices. “With soybeans leaving earlier, producers tend to allocate crops to off-season corn,” says the agronomist. In practice, corn inputs are purchased by the Paraná producer in September, while wheat inputs are generally purchased at the beginning of the year.

Conab's wheat market analyst, Flávia Starling Soares, assesses that production costs for all commodities have risen. “It is not exclusive to wheat, but to all grains that have international prices as a reference”, says the analyst, highlighting that this upward trend in prices observed in the last two years is expected to continue in 2022, due to the rise in exchange rates, the low global stocks and frustrations in several wheat-producing regions: “The price of wheat is expected to continue to rise throughout the year. Domestic prices did not show a downward trend during the harvest, which normally occurs due to the gradual increase in domestic supply and less need for imports. Furthermore, as many producers already have purchased inputs, production costs should be lower in the final balance, considering good productivity in the winter harvest”.

How to save on farming

Wheat requires a minimum of technology to be produced, but practices that promote and protect the crop's productive potential need to be evaluated according to the economic return they provide. Higher productivity does not always translate into higher profits in wheat, while above-average grain yields are often the result of high investment in inputs. “It is important to maintain a balance of accounts now, when implementing the crop. The ideal is to achieve the highest grain yield associated with maximum possible profitability. However, it is often more advantageous for the producer to assume a lower yield ceiling, but with good profitability”, advises Embrapa Trigo researcher, João Leonardo Pires.

The research identified several ways to adjust crop management, reducing costs and maintaining production potential. Some examples are: choosing the most appropriate cultivar for each business model/growing environment; reduction in sowing density; fertilizer adjustment; avoid products/practices with dubious results; crop rotation; well-managed direct planting system; phytosanitary controls by monitoring and not by calendar; among others that vary according to the productive potential and risks of the region, the history of the property and the climate.

“The advice is not to make mistakes when saving money on wheat farming. There is no point in saving money when purchasing certified seeds, reducing fertilization to limiting levels and maintaining a calendar of fungicide applications, without monitoring the crop to assess what is really needed at different moments of the crop's development. It is essential to stop using a fixed package of inputs/practices and apply, with the help of technical assistance, what is really necessary for each situation. Knowing where to save money, the producer can build a crop with good potential in a rational and technically based way”, explains Pires.

Fertilizers

Fertilizers make up a significant part of production costs, historically representing between 25% and 30% of investment in farming. Among the five main nitrogen fertilizers used in wheat cultivation, the price per ton was on average 127% more expensive, with an increase that varied from 38% to 182% depending on the product. A ton of urea, for example, went from R$1.940 (Dec2020) to R$5.355 (Dec2021), according to Conab's Agricultural Inputs Report. Another example is the NPK 05-20-20 formula, with an increase of 163% in the last year.

But according to Embrapa Trigo researcher, Fabiano De Bona, nitrogen fertilization is directly related to wheat productivity: “The application of N to the soil in wheat cultivation is one of the safest management practices in relation to economic return. Research shows that the efficiency in the use of N varies between 12 and 21 kilos of grains for each kilo of N added”, explains the researcher.

Urea is the main fertilizer used in wheat due to the lowest cost per unit of nutrient among nitrogen fertilizers available on the market. The amount of N recommended by the research is 60 to 120kg/ha, applying 15 to 20kg/ha at sowing and the remainder in coverage (tillering and lengthening of plant stems). The application of N at heading generally does not increase grain yield, but may favor an increase in protein content.

In general, the dose of nitrogen fertilization varies depending on the organic matter content, the previous crop, the region and the expected yield.

Use of summer crop residue

The drought that damaged the summer harvest in several locations in the Southern Region could change the demand for fertilizer for winter planting. The low development of soybeans and corn due to the drought did not allow the crop to make use of all the fertilizer available in the soil, so the producer will be able to count on this residual for the winter crop.

Among the fertilizers that must be immobilized in the soil in areas affected by drought are phosphorus and potassium. “I believe that, in many areas, only nitrogen input is necessary for wheat sowing. An important incentive for implementing a crop in winter at a time of shortage of fertilizers on the world market, which requires maximum use of the nutrients that are in the soil now and could be lost until the next summer harvest”, explains researcher Fabiano From Bonn.

The residual effect left by the summer crop must be determined through a fertility diagnosis, possible through soil analysis, a procedure with low cost to the producer. “If the producer harvested 12 bags of soybeans, for example, but fertilizer for a harvest of 40 bags, he knows there is fertilizer left in the soil. But the producer cannot estimate the residual effect without a soil analysis that safely indicates the volume of fertilizer needed for each planting area. We need to know exactly where to invest, using the nutrients that the soil has and adding only what is necessary”, explains Embrapa Trigo researcher, Osmar Conte.

Fungicides

Pesticides are the third highest-spending item in wheat farming, right behind fertilizers and machine operations. The highest cost is with fungicides, especially in years with adverse weather, where humidity favors the incidence of fungal diseases.

Among the 10 fungicides most used in wheat cultivation (based on triazoles + stubirulins), the average increase in price per liter reached 30%, with an increase varying between 5% and 72% depending on the product in the comparison Dec2020 with Dec2021 ( Conab, Agricultural Inputs RS).

For Embrapa Trigo phytopathologist Cheila Sbalcheiro, savings on pesticides are associated with cultivars with better health and crop monitoring. “In drier years, a cultivar resistant to powdery mildew will require fewer fungicides throughout the development of the crop, as well as resistance to rusts and leaf spots. The greatest care is from the beginning, where the use of fungicide is indicated preventively to control Fusarium head blight, when there are climatic conditions favorable to the disease. By monitoring the crop, we can reduce the number of applications, intervening at the right time for control. Thus, efficient management of pesticides can result in savings and final profit for the producer.”

Seeds

The price of seeds followed the increase in wheat prices. Still, seeds represent only 7,37% of production costs in triticulture (Deral, 2021).

The use of quality seeds is essential to ensure the yield potential of wheat, ensuring adequate crop establishment. The use of saved seed is authorized by Brazilian legislation, but the acquisition of certified seed will guarantee four essential items for the success of a good crop: genetic purity, that is, seeds of the desired cultivar, without mixtures; physical purity, with a guarantee that at least 98% of what is inside the bag are seeds of the cultivar; health, with healthy seeds that will not introduce any disease into the crop; and finally, physiological quality, in seeds with high germination.

Another essential care is seed treatment, a cost that varies between R$0,70 and R$1,00/kg and can bring more security in relation to the establishment of the crop, reducing losses due to insect attacks and diseases. Currently, the price of wheat seeds ready for sowing is around R$2,90/kg in the Rio Grande do Sul market (Apassul, Jan 2022).

In addition to quality, the quantity of seeds is a criterion that deserves attention when sowing. A study by Embrapa Trigo and CCGL/RTC evaluated the limits for reducing the quantity of seeds per hectare without harming the crop's final yield. According to the study, a safe average is in the range of 250 suitable seeds per square meter, around 86 kg/ha, considering quality seed. To define the appropriate management of plant density, the producer needs to know the history of the area and the genetic potential of the cultivar he is using. The recommendation is to always evaluate the possibilities with technical assistance and the company obtaining the cultivar.

Producer definition moment

Much of the sale of inputs for the winter harvest now takes place in the South Region, with the exception of northern Paraná where the decision between wheat or safrinha corn was already defined the previous year. Although there is a model calculation to estimate production costs, expenditure items may vary between institutions, companies and specialized consultancies. It is also important to highlight that each producer has their own cost and must make adjustments based on their reality, as cost control is essential to generate profit.

Vacaria, Northeast of RS – On the Sementes com Vigor property, wheat is expected to repeat the same area as in 2021, covering 1.250 hectares. With the inputs already purchased, producer Pedro Basso estimates a 66% increase in production costs: wheat seed production presented variable costs of R$3.000,00/ha in 2021, rising to R$5.000,00/ha this harvest. “Our average productivity in 2021 was 92 bags per hectare. Even with the increase in inputs, I believe we will still make a profit with wheat again this year”, says Pedro.

The producer bets on the use of cover crops after removing soybeans to enhance results in winter, such as the use of a mix with turnips or peas, to reduce the incidence of weeds in the area and the recycling of nutrients, such as nitrogen (N ), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). “This coverage reduces weeds and can even eliminate the need for post-emergence herbicide on wheat, which costs up to 1,5 bags per hectare. Coverage will also reduce the cost of fertilization, both with nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers”, explains Pedro, highlighting the importance of planning the year in the area: “wheat is essential for defining the summer crop. The good result of the last winter harvest saved many producers who are facing losses due to the drought in soybeans and corn now, especially because most of the losses are due to soybean sowings early, which did not have a winter harvest”.

Betting on good results with the winter harvest, Pedro Basso argues that this is not the time to do “low investment” farming, but rather to plan the production system, dividing the winter area into 20% for high productive potential, 60% for medium investment and 20% minimum investment. “If the climate is favorable, the entire crop responds well, but if there are adversities, a crop without inputs will not respond and the loss is certain. It is necessary to manage the investment aiming for the best possible financial return, whether in wheat or soybeans up front”.

Mamborê, Midwest of PR - Producer Flávio Moreira is waiting for moisture to begin sowing safrinha corn, with a planting window in the region until February 28th. In 2021, the crop was divided into 25% corn and 75% wheat. This harvest, the area will be divided into 50% corn and 50% wheat. Despite the 20% increase in corn production costs, the expectation is for higher profitability than wheat, as inputs for the winter cereal have not yet been purchased. “On average over the last four years, the profitability of off-season corn surpassed that of wheat. In our region, wheat also offers a greater risk of losses due to drought and frost”, explains the producer, with reservations: “If climatic conditions limit the sowing of corn, without a doubt wheat is the second option. In addition to the opportunity for greater income than winter cover crops, wheat also helps control weeds in soybeans and allows crop rotation.” The producer's initial planning is to invest in around 500 hectares of wheat this year.

Cruz Alta, North of RS – “Our production costs for wheat seeds should rise by 70% this year”, says producer Tomás Scapin, from ZT Sementes. According to him, fertilization alone should represent 15 sc/ha. The total cost of the crop is estimated at 45 sc/ha, still with a small profit margin considering the average productivity in recent years, which has been between 55 and 60 sc/ha. “Contrary to the initial forecast, I believe that the wheat area will grow again. The producer who is experiencing frustration with the soybean harvest will seek income from the winter harvest, even if profit margins are lower this year”, says Tomás

The producer says he has observed a growing demand from Paraná for wheat from Rio Grande do Sul, as the preference for corn could reduce the supply of winter grains in the state of Paraná. “Purchase of seeds by other states and even future contracts for wheat from Rio Grande do Sul are already happening. No matter how much the wheat area in RS grows again, demand will be even greater, which will guarantee liquidity and increase prices. It is now up to the producer to farm well, with more resistant cultivars, investing in urea and saving on pesticides whenever possible. Because there is no better alternative than wheat for winter rotation”, concludes Tomás. ZT Sementes will cover 450 hectares with wheat in the next harvest.

Maçambará, western RS – producer Leonardo de Oliveira Carneiro tried wheat for the first time in 2021, cultivating 132 ha. At harvest, the average yield exceeded 40 sc/ha. “It was a good result, considering that grain cultivation in the region is still beginning in areas where only native fields existed”, recalls the producer. He also counts the losses with soybeans: “In the soybean crop, only 20% of the seeds germinated. The same happened with most crops in the region, where producers are waiting for moisture to risk sowing again in the soybean harvest.” Aware of the potential for using fertilizer that may remain in the soil due to the summer's frustration, Leonardo will repeat the area with wheat in 2022, investing in seeds that have already been purchased and limiting nitrogen fertilizer to around 100 kg/ha. “Our production costs were R$2.000,00 last year and the idea is to try to maintain these costs in this wheat harvest. We are hopeful that the price of wheat will remain high, so winter income will be essential to balance the accounts and make the next summer harvest viable”, says the producer.