Wheat harvest in 2023 should be the second largest in RS

Rio Grande do Sul tends to have the second largest wheat harvest in history. The statement was made by the technical director of Emater/RS, Claudinei Baldissera, when presenting the Initial Estimate of the 20023 Winter Harvest, on the afternoon of this Thursday (15/06), alongside the president of Emater/RS, Mara Helena Saalfeld, and the deputy secretary of the State Secretariat for Rural Development (SDR), Lindomar do Carmo Moraes. According to the survey, the estimated production is 5.625.889 tons, involving wheat, white oat grains, barley and canola, that is, 12,81% lower than the last harvest, considered the largest in the State's history, with 6.452.337. XNUMX tons.

In this survey, carried out in May, and which covered 382 (98,3%) wheat-producing municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, the production of this grain is projected to decrease by 14%, from 5.288.030 tons obtained in the 2022 harvest to 4.548.934 tons predicted. for this year. With an area to be cultivated of 1.505.704 hectares (-1,5% compared to the previous year), wheat should reach an average productivity of 3.021 kg/ha, or -12,6% compared to the previous year, which was of 3.459 kg/ha.

In white oat grains, 263 producing municipalities were surveyed, representing 97,4% of the total cultivated area. In the 365.081 hectares forecast for this harvest (1,4% higher than the 360.139 hectares in 2022), Emater/RS-Ascar projects a production of 854.401 tons, which represents -6,4% in relation to the previous harvest, which was 913.021 tons, obtained from an average productivity of 2.535 kg/ha. For this year, the estimated average productivity for the State is 2.340 kg/ha, -7,7% in relation to the previous average.

Barley in this Winter Harvest in RS will be cultivated in an area of ​​35.899 hectares, that is, -14,5% compared to the previous area, which was 41.988 hectares. Expected productivity is also lower, going from 3.397 kg/ha in 2022 to 3.144 kg/ha this year, a difference of -7,4%. This projects a -20,9% lower production, of 112.877 tons, compared to the last harvest, of 1423.644 tons. The survey was carried out in 152 barley-producing municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, which represent 93,1% of the total cultivated area.

In canola, the area to be cultivated in the State will be 18,4% larger in this harvest, going from 56.786 hectares in 2022 to 67.219 hectares in 2023. The production forecast for this year is 109.677 tons, 1% greater than the production of canola in 2022, which was 108.642 tons. Despite these positive estimates, the predicted productivity is 1.632 kg/ha, that is, -14,7% compared to last year, which was 1.913 kg/ha. The planting intention survey was carried out in 175 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, 96,6% of the total cultivated area.

El Niño

“As a positive factor, we can mention the drop in input prices, in relation to previous cultivation, and, as a negative factor, El Niño, with possibilities of more intense rains predicted for the harvest season of these grains”, evaluates Baldissera, when suggesting producers a special look at the forecast of their crops, resorting to agricultural insurance for at least a fraction of the crop, “since climate projections indicate a super El Niño”, added the meteorologist from the State Department of Agriculture, Livestock, Sustainable Production and Irrigation (Seapi), Flávio Varone, who also participated in the presentation of the initial estimates for the 2023 Winter Harvest.

According to the Quarterly Forecast (June-July-August) presented by Varone, “high volumes of rain are forecast for the second half of this year, like the 2015 and 2016 harvests, which caused damage and losses, with floods and floods ”, anticipates, by indicating, as consequences, a lot of damage to winter crops, especially at the end of the cycle and during harvest, and could even delay the start of planting summer crops.