USDA projects soybean growth in Brazil in the 2025/26 harvest

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released new estimates for Brazilian oilseed production, highlighting growth in the soybean sector in the 2025/26 harvest. According to the report, the planted area is expected to grow by 3% and reach 49,1 million hectares, while production could reach 176 million tons - an increase of 2% compared to the previous projection.

According to the department, factors contributing to this scenario include the possible relaxation or end of the Soy Moratorium, more stable weather conditions with El Niño, and a recovery in productivity compared to previous harvests. Average national productivity is also expected to increase, reaching 3,58 tons per hectare (t/ha).

Review for the 2024/25 harvest

For the current harvest, the USDA revised upwards the estimate of planted area, now calculated at 47,6 million hectares - 300 thousand hectares more than in the previous report, representing an increase of 0,6%. The production projection, however, was maintained at 169,5 million tons.

The good weather conditions in the first half of 2025 favored the recovery of productivity, which increased by 6% compared to 2024. As a result, the estimated average productivity for the 2024/25 harvest was adjusted to 3,56 t/ha, slightly below the initial projection of 3,58 t/ha, but still representing a record performance.

Exports

Export projections for the 2024/25 harvest remain at 108,3 million tons. Although exports were expected to increase this year, driven by tariff tensions and possible strategic changes by China, USDA sources and industry analysts believe that these effects should only be consolidated in the coming years.