UFPEL researchers simulate locust trajectory

GDISPEN researchers have been working on simulating the trajectory of the locust cloud that is currently in Argentina, close to the border with Uruguay.

Since last Saturday, the group has been presenting estimates of the trajectory of the locust cloud. Details about the model used and the swarm can be found on the laboratory page.

Comparison of current locust cloud location and projected scenarios for Monday, 20/7

In the publication on 19/7, 3 scenarios were proposed for the possible trajectories of the insects until 23/7. According to SENASA, the cloud moved today and reached the city of San José de Feliciano, province of Entre Ríos in Argentina. San José de Feliciano is, as the crow flies, approximately 83 km from the border with Uruguay and 117km from Barra do Quaraí in RS. The figure below shows the estimate made by GDISPEN for Monday. On the graph, the yellow dot is the current location of the cloud. Like this, the first scenario was confirmed in which it was estimated that the cloud would travel approximately 40 km today.

Estimated cloud trajectory for Tuesday, 21/7

An update for Tuesday 21/7 is presented below, departing from the city of San José de Feliciano. The wind field forecast data from the WRF model, initialized on 19/7 at 00UTC, is used. The estimate of 2 possible trajectories is presented: in the first scenario, it is assumed that the cloud travels 40 km/day; in a second scenario, 80 km/day. The complete trajectories are described in the following figure (Scene 1: red circles; Scene 2: blue circles).

Next, the possible scenarios are presented separately in animations.

Scenario 1: Cloud of locusts moves 40 km/day 

(To view the animation click on the figure)

If this forecast is confirmed, this Tuesday 21/7, it is estimated that the cloud will be close to Los Conquistadores, province of Entre Ríos in Argentina, around 100 km (in a straight line) from the city of Barra do Quaraí in LOL.

Scenario 2: Cloud of locusts moves 80 km/day 

(To view the animation click on the figure)

If this forecast is confirmed, this Tuesday 21/7, it is estimated that the cloud could reach the region close to the city of El Redomon, still in the province of Entre Ríos in Argentina. The city is 33km from the border with Uruguay and 120km (as the crow flies) from the city of Barra do Quaraí in RS.

New estimates will be presented whenever a new location of the swarm is released by SENASA.

It is important to remember that these simulations come from a mathematical model, and as such are an approximation of reality, and therefore have inherent errors. Furthermore, the trajectory can be altered according to changes due to the movement of the species, in addition to climatological changes such as rain and cold.

This study has a purely academic and scientific objective, showing the great applicability of mathematical modeling in real problems. The discussions, opinions, ideas and publications generated from the results of the model used are those of the respective authors, and do not necessarily represent those of the institutions to which they belong.

The GDISPEN researchers involved in this research are doctors Fernanda Tumelero, Viliam Cardoso da Silveira, Guilherme Jahnecke Weymar, Daniela Buske, Régis Sperotto de Quadros, Glênio Aguiar Gonçalves, Igor da Cunha Furtado, Alexandre Sacco Athayde and Luciana Piovesan.

Learn more at: 

Map says that cloud of locusts is not moving towards Brazil