Total orange production is reestimated at 264,14 million boxes

The second re-estimate of the 2021/22 orange harvest for the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro, published on December 10, 2021 by Fundecitrus – carried out with the cooperation of Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 –, is 264,14 million boxes of 40,8 kg. With this new projection, the harvest drops 1,39% in relation to the September re-estimate and maintains the downward trend, accumulating, since May, a loss of 30 million boxes in relation to the initial expectation, equivalent to 10,21% . Of the total harvest, around 23,46 million boxes should be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.

Adverse weather conditions this season, which include the most severe drought in almost a century and successive frosts, have inhibited the growth of oranges and increased premature fruit drop. The accumulated volume of rain from May to November 2021 was 344 millimeters, on average in the citrus belt regions, 31% below the climatological normal (1981-2020), according to data from Somar/Climatempo Meteorologia.

This pattern lower than the historical average occurred in 11 regions with different intensities: -3% in the Triângulo Mineiro; -18% in Bebedouro; -51% in Votuporanga; -13% in São José do Rio Preto; -26% in Matão; -42% in Duartina; -35% in Brotas; -30% in Porto Ferreira; -50% in Limeira; -42% in Avaré; and -30% in Itapetininga.

Only in the Altinópolis region did the volume of rainfall stand out from the others and was 16% above average, as shown in Graph 1. The intense drought reduced the water level in rivers and reservoirs, making availability difficult even for orchards with a system installed irrigation system, covering more than 30% of the citrus belt area. Overall, the severity of the drought only began to ease in October, the only month since the beginning of the harvest in which rainfall exceeded the historical average. The observed rainfall, with regionalized droughts, is typical of the La Niña climate phenomenon, which has been in effect since spring and is expected to last until autumn 2022.

The harvest advanced and, in mid-November, reached around 65% of total production, but is still at a slower pace than normal due to unfavorable weather conditions and the greater concentration of second-bloom fruits. The harvest of early varieties Hamlin, Westin and Rubi has been completed; of the other precocious ones, Valência Americana, Seleta and Pineapple, it reached 90%; Pera Rio, 70%; Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha, 43%; and Christmas, 39%.

Considering all varieties, the projected average size, in September 2021, of 283 fruits to compose a 40,8 kg box, which is equivalent to oranges with an average weight of 144,2 grams, is revised to 287 fruits per box, weight of 142,2 grams per fruit, 15,9% lower than that of the last five harvests (average of 169 grams). The average fruit size of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties projected, in September 2021, at 334 fruits per box (122 grams per fruit) was finalized at 332 fruits per box (123 grams per fruit). Oranges of other early varieties go from 291 fruits per box (140 grams per fruit) to 289 fruits per box (141 grams per fruit). The Pera Rio variety has its projection changed from 278 fruits per box (147 grams per fruit) to 290 fruits per box (141 grams per fruit). The average size of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties, which was projected at 263 fruits per box (155,1 grams per fruit), is revised to 264 fruits per box (154,5 grams per fruit). The Natal variety goes from the projection of 267 fruits per box (153 grams per fruit) to 274 fruits per box (149 grams per fruit).

The increase in premature fruit drop was observed in the months of October and November after the return of the rains, which was already included in the projected average rate of 20,90%, considering all varieties. In the distribution of the drop rate between the varieties, that of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi was finalized at 12,00%; that of other early varieties remains projected at 13,50%; Pera Rio, 23%; Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha by 24%; and Christmas by 24%.

The method used for the reestimation is the same as that adopted in the previous harvest. The information was obtained from monitoring research carried out in 1.200 plots from May onwards, which are no longer visited as they are fully harvested. Another source considered in this study is the size of the fruits that are received throughout the harvest by the orange juice companies associated with Fundecitrus – Citrosuco, Cutrale and Louis Dreyfus – for industrial processing purposes. Each processor provides, under confidentiality, individual data to the independent consultancy company to calculate the average size of the fruits processed.