Timber production model in forestry concessions will be exhausted in 35 years

In effect since 2006, the current timber production program through forest concessions will be exhausted in 35 years if it is not revised. This is the result of a study published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management, which has the involvement of Brazilian and foreign researchers.

“The program proposed by the Brazilian Forest Service aims to provide a legal structure for long-term sustainable wood production in Amazonian forests”, explains Edson Vidal, professor in the Forest Sciences department at the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (Esalq/ USP), one of the authors of the study.

The researchers explain that forestry concessions in the Brazilian Amazon currently cover only 1,6 million ha (Mha), but the total potential concession area is estimated to be 35 Mha.

“We assess the conditions under which the current and potential concession system can guarantee annual production of 11 Mm³.year^-1 to meet the current estimated demand for wood”, adds Vidal.

To this end, 27 different scenarios were tested, using combinations of initial proportion of commercial volume, wood extraction, intensity and period of the cutting cycle. The result showed that only the scenario with an extraction intensity of 10 m³.there is^-1 every 60 years with an initial proportion of 90% wood from commercial species can be considered sustainable.

In this scenario, the maximum annual production with the current concession area would be 159.000 m³ (157-159), or less than 2% of current annual production of 11 Mm³. When considering all potential areas for concession (35 Mha), under current rules, total annual production is 10 Mm³.year⁻¹ (2–17 mm³.year⁻¹, 95% confidence interval), but is not maintained after the first forest management cutting cycle. Under a more sustainable scenario and a concession area of ​​35 Mha, long-term sustainable annual timber production would reach just 3,4 Mm³.year^-1.

Plinio Sist, researcher in tropical forest ecology at CIRAD and first author of the article, concludes that the concession system will not be able to meet the demand for wood without substantial reforms in natural forest management practices and the timber industry sector. “Our study shows that natural forests alone cannot meet timber needs. Therefore, it is urgent to establish a diversified forest system now and develop other sources of wood, for example through mixed wood plantations, agroforestry or the management of secondary forests."

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