Sugarcane crushing in the Center-South region will fall 8,57% in 2025

In the second half of July, production units in the Center-South region processed 50,22 million tons, compared to 51,59 million tons in the 2024/2025 harvest – a decrease of 2,66%. In the accumulated total for the 2025/2026 harvest through August 1, milling reached 306,24 million tons, compared to 334,95 million tons recorded in the same period in the previous cycle – a decrease of 8,57%.

In the second half of July, 257 production units operated in the Center-South region, including 237 sugarcane processing units, ten corn-based ethanol producers, and ten flex-fuel plants. In the same period, in the 24/25 harvest season, 261 production units operated, including 241 sugarcane processing units, nine corn-based ethanol producers, and 11 flex-fuel plants.

Regarding the quality of the raw material, the Total Recoverable Sugars (TRS) level recorded in the second half of July reached only 139,62 kg of TRS per ton of sugarcane, compared to 147,29 kg per ton in the 2024/2025 harvest – a decrease of 5,21%. In the accumulated harvest, the indicator marks 126,85 kg of TRS per ton, registering a decrease of 4,77% compared to the value observed in the same position in the previous cycle.

Unica's Director of Sector Intelligence, Luciano Rodrigues, highlights that "the ATR level for the 2025/2026 harvest is the lowest observed in 10 years. Only in the 2015/2016 cycle did we record a lower quality indicator than that recorded so far in the Center-South."  

The executive explains that the sector is experiencing an atypical situation this harvest, as there is typically an inverse relationship between agricultural productivity and raw material quality. "This year, rainfall patterns were unfavorable during both critical phases of the sugarcane cycle. In the summer, suboptimal rainfall compromised crop development and reduced yield (TCH). During harvest, the wetter weather affected the concentration of ATR in the plant. As a result, the 2025/2026 harvest will see a simultaneous decline in both quality (ATR) and yield (TCH) indicators," explains Rodrigues.

In fact, data collected by the Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC) indicate that, from April to July, agricultural productivity registered a 10% drop in the Center-South average compared to the value observed in the same period of the 2024/2025 cycle, reaching only 79,84 tons of sugarcane per hectare in this cycle.

"The 10% drop in TCH combined with the 5% loss in ATR generated a reduction of nearly 15% in the amount of ATR per harvested hectare (TAH), impacting the amount of product extracted per unit area. With the exception of northern Paraná and the Assis region in São Paulo, the TAH decline is widespread throughout the Center-South, reaching 18,0% in Goiás, 18,8% in São José do Rio Preto, 23,4% in Minas Gerais, and 25,2% in Ribeirão Preto," explains Rodrigues.

Sugar and ethanol production

Sugar production in the second half of July totaled 3,61 million tons, a 0,80% decrease compared to the same period in the 2024/2025 harvest (3,64 million tons). Cumulative production from the beginning of the harvest until August 1st, sweetener production totaled 19,27 million tons, compared to 20,89 million tons in the previous cycle – a significant reduction of 7,76%.

In the second half of July, ethanol production by units in the Center-South reached 2,28 billion liters, of which 1,40 billion liters were hydrous ethanol (-13,54%) and 880,40 million liters were anhydrous ethanol (-6,57%). In the current agricultural cycle, biofuel production totaled 13,88 billion liters (-11,96%), of which 8,84 billion were hydrous ethanol (-11,85%) and 5,05 billion were anhydrous ethanol (-12,15%).

Of the total ethanol produced in the second half of July, 17,21% was produced from corn, registering production of 392,43 million liters this year, compared to 344,76 million liters in the same period of the 2024/2025 cycle – an increase of 13,83%. Cumulative production since the beginning of the harvest, corn ethanol reached 2,95 billion liters.

Ethanol sales

In July, ethanol sales totaled 2,93 billion liters. Anhydrous ethanol sales in the period reached 1,09 billion liters—an increase of 1,06%—while hydrous ethanol sales totaled 1,84 million liters.

In the domestic market, hydrous ethanol sales from plants in the Center-South region totaled 1,75 billion liters, a 5,58% decrease compared to the same period in the previous harvest. Anhydrous ethanol sales, meanwhile, reached 1,07 billion liters, a 6,02% increase.

From the beginning of the harvest through August 11,48st, ethanol sales by Center-South units totaled 2,73 billion liters (-7,32%). The accumulated volume of hydrous ethanol totaled 5,20 billion liters (-4,16%), while anhydrous ethanol reached 1,96 billion liters (+XNUMX%).

CBios market

Data from B3 up to August 13th indicates the issuance of 16,13 million credits in 2025 by biofuel producers. The amount of CBios available for trading held by the obligated, non-obligated parties and issuers totals 30,49 million decarbonization credits.

"Adding the CBios available for commercialization and the credits already retired to meet the 2025 target, we already have approximately 86,90% of the titles needed to fully meet the quantity required by the Program for the end of this year," highlights the director of Unica.