Sugarcane milling falls 21% in the first half of June

In the first half of June, the production units in the Center-South region processed 38,78 million tons compared to 49,40 million in the 2024/2025 harvest – which represents a drop of 21,49%. In the accumulated total for the 2025/2026 harvest up to June 16, milling reached 163,58 million tons, compared to 190,94 million tons recorded in the same period in the previous cycle – a drop of 14,33%.

In the same period in June, four units started the 2025/2026 harvest. At the end of the fortnight, 255 production units were in operation in the Center-South region, of which 236 units processed sugarcane, ten companies produced ethanol from corn and nine flex plants. In the same period, in the 2024/2025 harvest, 258 production units operated, of which 240 units processed sugarcane, nine companies produced ethanol from corn and nine flex plants.

Unica’s Director of Sector Intelligence, Luciano Rodrigues, explains that “the harvest in the Center-South is already operating at practically full capacity, with 95% of the units active this fortnight. Even so, milling has seen a decline in the last fifteen days, impacted by unfavorable weather conditions for the harvest. The rains, concentrated mainly in the states of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and in the regions of Araçatuba and Assis in São Paulo, have affected the pace of work in the fields, causing the volume processed to be below the average of the last harvests.”

Regarding the quality of the raw material, the level of Total Recoverable Sugars (ATR) recorded in the first half of June reached 128,66 kg of ATR per ton of sugarcane, against 134,55 kg per ton in the 2024/2025 harvest - a negative variation of 4,37%. In the accumulated harvest, the indicator marks 119,60 kg of ATR per ton, registering a decrease of 4,54% compared to the value observed in the same position in the previous cycle.

Sugar and ethanol production

Sugar production in the first 15 days of June totaled 2,45 million tons, a 22,12% drop compared to the amount recorded in the same period in the 2024/2025 harvest (3,15 million tons). In the accumulated period since the beginning of the harvest until June 16, the production of the sweetener totaled 9,40 million tons, compared to 11,02 million tons in the previous cycle (-14,63%).

In the first half of June, ethanol production by the Center-South units reached 1,78 billion liters, of which 1,10 billion liters were hydrated ethanol (-17,97%) and 677,59 million liters were anhydrous ethanol (-26,97%). In the current agricultural cycle, biofuel production totaled 7,50 billion liters (-14,21%), of which 4,94 billion were hydrated ethanol (-13,02%) and 2,56 billion were anhydrous ethanol (-16,41%).

Of the total ethanol obtained in the first half of June, 20,11% was manufactured from corn, recording production of 356,98 million liters this year, compared to 306,31 million liters in the same period of the 2024/2025 cycle – an increase of 16,54%. Year to date since the beginning of the harvest, corn ethanol production reached 1,80 billion liters – an increase of 22,02% compared to the same period last year.

Ethanol sales

In the first half of June, ethanol sales totaled 1,26 billion liters, which represents a negative variation of 13,92% compared to the same period of the 2024/2025 harvest. The volume of anhydrous ethanol sold in the period was 460,01 million liters - a decrease of 10,18% - while hydrated ethanol registered sales of 803,95 million liters - a decrease of 15,93%.

In the domestic market, the volume of hydrated ethanol sold by the Center-South units totaled 779,90 million liters – a negative variation of 16,58% compared to the same period of the previous harvest. Sales of anhydrous ethanol, in turn, reached 442,61 million liters – a decrease of 11,46%.

From the beginning of the harvest until June 16, ethanol sales by units in the Center-South totaled 7,02 billion liters, a drop of 4,47%. The accumulated volume of hydrated ethanol totaled 4,52 billion liters (-7,41%), while anhydrous ethanol reached 2,51 billion liters (+1,32%).

“The relative price differential between hydrated ethanol and gasoline at gas stations is 67,4% on average in the country, offering a viable alternative for Brazilian consumers to save money and decarbonize. The current price parity favors ethanol and opens space for a possible growth in demand for the biofuel, especially in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, Paraná and Minas Gerais,” explains Rodrigues.

Rodrigues also highlights that the announcement of the increase in the mandatory blend of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% as of August 1st should increase the need for biofuel in the coming months. “The increase in the blend should promote lower greenhouse gas emissions, an increase in gasoline octane rating, self-sufficiency in the production of fossil fuels and job creation in the country,” added the executive.

CBios market

Data from B3 up to June 27th indicate the issuance of 21,28 million credits in 2025 by biofuel producers. The amount of CBios available for trading held by the obligated party, non-obligated party and issuers totals 26,82 million decarbonization credits.

The CBios available for sale and the credits already retired to meet the 2025 target total approximately 76% of the titles needed to fully meet the quantity required by the Program for the end of this year.

Rodrigues highlights that last week, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) decided on the publication of the sanction list identifying defaulting distributors within the scope of RenovaBio.

“After the publication of this list, producers will be prohibited from selling fuels to the distributors included in it until they regularize their situation. This is a measure of fundamental importance for the consolidation of RenovaBio, recognized as one of the most robust decarbonization programs in the transportation sector in the world, as it ensures compliance with emissions reduction targets,” added the executive.