Harvest Forecast: sugarcane and orange stabilize, grains should increase production and productivity

With a small fluctuation (+0,2%), the cultivated area reached 6,2 million hectares, which proves that producers chose to reduce investments in renewing sugarcane fields and planting new areas, informs the Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply of the State of São Paulo, through the Institute of Agricultural Economics (IEA/Apta).

The survey carried out in November, in partnership with the Coordination for Sustainable Rural Development (CDRS), consists of collecting and systematizing data from the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo. Through this survey it was found that the regions of Andradina, Araraquara, Barretos, Catanduva, Jaboticabal, Jaú, Orlândia, Ribeirão Preto and São José do Rio Preto constitute an important sugarcane hub, concentrating in this harvest a total planted area (production and new) of 3.148 thousand hectares, corresponding to approximately 51% of the area and production of sugar cane, say IEA researchers.

For the orange crop, the final estimate for the 2018/19 harvest is 335,4 million boxes of 40,8 kg (13.686,4 thousand tons), a volume 5% higher than that obtained in the 2017/18 harvest. This volume accounts for the quantity destined for the market and industry, the boxes lost in the production process and harvest, as well as the fruits from orchards that are not economically significant.

As for the total planted area, there is stability (-0,1%), although there is an expectation of growth in areas where the plants are not yet in the production phase. It is also possible to observe the continuity of the eradication process of plants that present phytopathological problems, mainly citrus canker and HLB (greening). The area occupied by orange orchards is 454,8 thousand hectares, corresponding to 182 million plants, around 90% of which are suitable for production.

Summer Harvest

The initial area and production forecasts for the 2019/20 São Paulo grain harvest (first harvest or summer harvest) indicate a slight increase of 0,4% in production, with a forecast of exceeding 6,7 million tons, and average productivity , with a gain of 0,5% expected.

For peanut cultivation, the preliminary estimate points to an increase of 2,1% in the planted area compared to the sum of the areas corresponding to the previous rainy and dry harvests, reaching 144,2 thousand hectares; and production (+24,1%), compared to the previous agricultural harvest, due to the 21,6% increase in land productivity.

The expectation of record grain production in the country for this agricultural cycle should not be observed in São Paulo's first corn harvest. The November estimate points to a 7,8% drop in the area allocated to crops compared to the 2018/19 harvest. Production and productivity also present negative rates, 10,7% and 3,2%, respectively. However, these results may have been influenced by the delay in planting soybeans, which may result in changes in future surveys.

In the last agricultural cycle (2018/19), the soybean area in the State of São Paulo surpassed the 1 million hectare mark, with constant growth and an upward trend. The November survey shows a small fluctuation in the area (-1,1%); on the other hand, an increase of 8,2% in production is expected, due to higher productivity (+9,4%), going from 3.025 kg/ha to 3.309 kg/ha, resulting from the recovery in productivity levels.

Coffee in boom cycle

The first estimate of the 2019/20 coffee harvest in the State indicates a strong expansion in the quantity to be harvested. Comparing with the previous harvest, when 4,4 million 60 kg processed bags were harvested (low cycle), the current harvest is expected to exceed 5,6 million bags (337,5 thousand tons); that is, an increase of 27,4%, with a yield 27,1% higher than the previous year. As this result is preliminary, two factors could contribute to the increase in numbers: the weather conditions, which have been favorable to farming, and the rising price in recent months, which favor the increase in the use of production inputs whose result could increase productivity.

The Franca region, which exhibits a high range of variation in the biennial cycle, appears in this survey with an estimated harvest of 2,3 million bags in the 68,0 thousand hectares cultivated with rubiaceae, representing an average productivity of 33,9 sc./ha , the highest in the state and perhaps the highest compared to all the other Arabica coffee belts in the country. The São João da Boa Vista region, second-leader in coffee production in the State, is expected to harvest 1,3 million bags, showing an expansion of 13,9% compared to the previous harvest. With high potential for production growth, the Marília region follows, with an estimated harvest of 523 thousand bags (an increase of 52,6%), but far from Franca's productivity, harvesting an average of 25 sc./ha.