Study shows agricultural productivity on the rise worldwide

Global agricultural productivity has shown significant advances, but the sustainability of these gains and their balanced distribution across regions still challenges farmers, policymakers and scientists.

A recent study provides insights into the growth of agricultural yields over the past 60 years. Calorie-based yield and production indices were developed for 144 crops, covering 98% of the world’s agricultural land and food production. These indices provide standardized measures for different crops, allowing comparisons of agricultural productivity across countries and regions.

Income growth

According to the study, global agricultural yields grew at an average rate of 109 kcal/ha per year between 1961 and 2021, equivalent to about 33 kg of wheat per hectare annually. Despite perceptions of stagnation, the data show that slowdowns in some crops or regions were offset by accelerations in others.

• Big-4 (corn, wheat, rice and soybeans): Responsible for almost half of the global caloric supply, yields of these crops have tripled since 1961. However, they show no clear signs of acceleration or deceleration.

• Minor crops: other crops saw a modest acceleration in yield growth after 1993, although they still contribute less to total production.

However, regions such as Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe stand out with significant gains, while Sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges due to inadequate infrastructure and limited use of modern technologies.

Challenges ahead

Despite the progress, the study warns of barriers that could hinder continued growth in agricultural incomes:

• Climate changes: Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and threaten income stability.

• Increased demand: Projections indicate that a 30% increase in global production will be necessary by 2050, driven by population growth and changes in consumption patterns.

• Sustainability: intensive use of agricultural inputs in many regions raises concerns about environmental impacts and cost-benefit.

A new approach

The study introduces an innovative approach to measuring yield growth based on caloric content rather than traditional metrics such as tonnes per hectare. This method allows for a more holistic view, considering crop diversity and their contributions to global food security.

More information can be found at doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313088