StoneX reduces 8/2025 wheat harvest estimate by 26%

In May, StoneX revised downward its projection for the area planted with wheat in Brazil for the 2025/26 harvest. According to the new report, the estimate fell 8% compared to the previous month, falling to 2,57 million hectares. The decline mainly affects the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, responsible for a large part of the national production.

Factors that contributed to the decline include difficulty in accessing rural credit, falling wheat prices and frustrations with previous harvests. “These factors discouraged planting, leading producers to opt for other crops,” explains Jonathan Pinheiro, consultant at StoneX.

With the smaller cultivated area, the consultancy projects an increase in the need for imports, even with a reduction in domestic demand for milling. The decline in flour consumption, according to analysts, may be linked to inflationary pressures.

Despite the adverse scenario, part of the sector still intends to plant wheat, driven by opportunities in international trade. This could help sustain exports, even with the expected drop in production. Final stocks, in turn, should fall by around 10% compared to previous projections, but will still be above the volumes of the 2024/25 harvest.