StoneX estimates an increase of 5,0% in fertilizer deliveries in 2020

In December, StoneX revised its estimate for fertilizer deliveries in 38,05 to 2020 million tons, equivalent to an increase of 5,0% year-on-year. Previously projected at 37,32 million tons (+3,0%), the volume revision for the current year follows a strong increase in fertilizer imports in October, and indication of continued internalization in November, deviating from the trend for the fourth quarter of the year.

Internalizations of the NPK complex already total around 25,15 million tons (Jan-Oct), an amount 12,7% ahead of that recorded in the same period of 2019. “The pace of imports is a result of strong negotiation at the end consumer end. , a movement observed since December last year and reflected in the fertilizer sales indicator”, explains StoneX market intelligence analyst, Gabriela Fontanari.

According to the group's analysis, the greater optimism among grain producers, leveraged by the strengthening of prices, and the domestic market comfortably supplied by significant internalizations over the last few months corroborate the estimate of a new consumption record in 2020, and a more pronounced annual advance compared to previous harvests. Furthermore, there are signs that strong imports and the pace of commercialization will continue in the coming months.