| Agriculture

Stone X indicates a 2,7% decline in the 2025/26 wheat harvest

According to the consultancy, production should reach 7,69 million tons

06.06.2025 | 14:06 (UTC -3)

Valeria Campos

In its June update, StoneX, a global financial services company, made specific adjustments to its projection for the 2025/26 Brazilian wheat harvest. The new estimate points to a production of 7,69 million tons, which represents a decrease of 2,7% compared to what was expected last month.

According to StoneX Risk Management consultant Jonathan Pinheiro (pictured), the recent scenario indicates a lower propensity for farmers to invest in wheat as a winter crop this season, especially in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul — which are mainly responsible for national production.

“In this sense, the area destined for cultivation in Paraná is now estimated at 905 thousand hectares, while in Rio Grande do Sul it is around 1,1 million hectares. Due to the cut in the sown area, the expectation is that production in Paraná will fall by 2,2% and, in Rio Grande do Sul, by 4,3% in the monthly comparison”, explains Pinheiro.

Despite this new review, there is a growth outlook for production compared to the 2024/25 production cycle.

Balance and offer

In terms of supply and demand, StoneX observes a decrease in the availability of wheat on the domestic market, due to the cut in production estimates, still without a counterpart on the import side.

On the other hand, as planting progresses, there has not been progress in seed sales at the same pace. “It is believed that, to a large extent, the demand for seeds is being met by stocks previously saved for this purpose. However, the possibility of some producers giving up planting has not been ruled out, which would justify the lower numbers for the area and production in this harvest,” Pinheiro points out.

Given this scenario, a significant reduction in final wheat stocks in the country is expected and, consequently, in the stock/use ratio. In numbers, final stocks are now estimated at 255 thousand tons, a reduction of 44,3% compared to what was expected in the last edition of this report, and of 38,1% compared to the 2024/25 harvest.