Soybeans and corn remain under pressure due to high supply

Soybeans and corn remain under pressure due to the combination of high supply and falling prices in Chicago, according to Grão Direto's Expert Analysis this Wednesday (August 6). While favorable weather conditions are keeping crops growing well in the United States, the second corn harvest in Brazil is nearly complete, increasing domestic supply. Even with firm demand, logistics costs and external competition are worsening the price scenario.

How did the soybean market behave?

Pressure from Chicago with promising American harvest: The USDA raised the index of good or excellent soybean crops in the United States to 70%, reinforcing expectations of a full harvest.

Climate generates attention and volatility: In contrast, intense heat in the Midwest increased market sensitivity to weather updates, but without significant effects. 

Exports and premiums support the domestic market: Even with the downward bias in Chicago, continued international demand and the maintenance of high premiums at ports helped sustain soybean prices in the Brazilian domestic market.

In Chicago, the August 2025 soybean contract closed at US$9,62 per bushel, down 3,7% for the week. The March 2026 contract also fell, closing at US$10,23 per bushel, a 3,03% decline. The dollar fell 0,18%, closing the week at R$5,55. The prevailing trend in the physical market was slight price increases.

What to expect from the soybean market?

Marketing harvest 2025/26: Soybean sales for the next harvest in Mato Grosso are behind schedule. Only 17,5% had been sold by July, well below the average for recent years. This shows that producers are holding back, waiting for better opportunities or facing tighter margins. This scenario is reinforced, and may continue to be so, by the fact that MAP, DAP, and urea fertilizers are still relatively more expensive compared to last year when the exchange rate is taken into account. Producers may be waiting for an improvement in the exchange rate before selling.

US Weather and USDA Report: The weather forecast for the next 6 to 10 days remains positive for crop development in the US. With good weather conditions, both soybean and corn should maintain high productivity, reinforcing a scenario of ample supply in the global market. This situation has led investment funds to sell heavily in futures contracts in Chicago over the past two weeks, driving prices down. The only possibility of reversing this pressure would be a significant climate change in the US—which, for now, is not on the radar. Without this risk factor, the trend is still for prices to fall next week.

Brazilian exports: the strength of demand for Brazilian soybeans and the support of premiums at ports will continue to be crucial to protect domestic prices from the international downward trend.

Soybean prices remain under pressure due to the positive crop performance in the US and the fund's sales activity in Chicago. With sales of the 2025/26 crop still slow in Brazil and production costs high, producers remain cautious. The downward trend is expected to continue this week.

How did the corn market behave?

Heat in the US threatens productivity: In the United States, intense heat in the Corn Belt throughout the week raised concerns about the yield potential of corn crops, increasing volatility in Chicago. Even so, the market is still operating with expectations of good supply.

Demand for ethanol keeps prices steady: In Brazil, strong demand for corn from ethanol plants has limited the impact of the second crop harvest on prices. Active replenishment in the sector continues to support prices, especially in the Central-West region.

Logistics costs put pressure on producers: Despite strong demand, rising freight costs in some regions have reduced profitability for producers. This logistical pressure has continued to weaken prices in the interior.

In Chicago, the September 2025 corn contract closed at US$3,90 per bushel, down 2,26% for the week. On the B3 exchange, the September 2025 contract rose 2% to R$66,96 per bag. In the physical market, prices varied, with some regions closing higher and others lower, awaiting more precise fundamentals.

What to expect from the corn market?

Harvest practically finished with full crop: The second-crop corn harvest is in its final stages, with expected growth and high productivity. This confirms a robust harvest in Brazil, approaching 120 million tons, which should increase price pressure in the coming weeks. With this volume entering the market, road freight prices remain high, with no short-term decline expected.

Brazilian corn remains expensive: Even with the second crop harvest almost complete, Brazilian corn remains more expensive than American corn. What has kept prices steady here is the still-firm domestic demand, especially from the animal protein and ethanol industries. In the international market, US corn is more competitive—and with the American harvest approaching, Brazilian corn is losing ground. If domestic demand declines starting in October, Brazilian corn could seek export parity, which is currently lagging by around R$13,00/bag.

With the second crop harvest virtually complete and a full harvest confirmed, increased supply is likely to intensify price pressure. Despite still-firm domestic demand, the competitiveness of American corn abroad and high logistics costs in Brazil maintain a negative bias for the coming weeks.