Soybean production falls, but processing projection remains at 54,5 million/t, says Abiove

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) updated the monthly statistics for the soybean complex in Brazil until December 2023 and the numbers for the 2024 harvest.

The entity's projections for the current cycle were adjusted due to climate impacts in the field. Soybean production should reach 156,1 million/t, a number lower than that projected at the end of December (160,3 million/t). This is due to an evident loss of productivity: 3.455 kg/ha in the current harvest compared to 3.575 kg/ha in the previous one, even with the increase in planted area, from 44,1 million/ha in 2023 to 45,2 this year.

The estimate for processing soybeans was maintained at 54,5 million/t due to expectations of demand for soybean meal and oil, the latter driven by the mandatory blend of biodiesel.

Production projections for soybean co-products remain well aligned, 41,7 million/t for bran and 10,9 for oil. Exports were also reevaluated: i) soybeans fall to 98,1 million/t against 99,3 in the previous survey, mainly due to the lower supply of the grain; ii) soybean meal has a small variation, 21,6 million/t against 21,7 in the December projection; and iii) soybean oil maintained at 1,45 million/t. It is estimated that these exports from the soybean complex will generate US$56,6 billion in foreign exchange this year.

2023

Data compiled from January to December 2023 indicate that soybean grain production should close at 158,7 million/t, with processing at 53,7 million/t. Bran production should reach 41,1 million/t and oil at 10,8 million/t.

Export volumes are impressive: i) soybeans, 101,9 million/t; ii) soybean meal 22,6 million/t; and iii) soybean oil, 2,3 million/t. The expected revenue from these exports is US$67,3 billion.