Soybean market: overview of the week - 10/02/2023

The soybean market started this week operating in negative fields on the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOT). The week started with a loss of around 4 points in the early hours of Monday (6/2). However, these losses did not last throughout the day. The firm demand for soybean meal and the appreciation in the external market paused the downward movement in oilseed prices. In addition to bran prices, low grain stocks and the slow pace of the harvest when compared to the previous year support the reversal of the movement.

Tuesday (7/2) started with upward movements taking May to US$ 15,18 and July to US$ 15,10 per bushel. The market is still following the weather conditions in South America and the delay in the Brazilian harvest, which is boosting prices given an even better outlook for American soybeans. Soybeans also found support during this Tuesday in oil, with the derivative showing an increase of more than 1%. However, this movement did not continue during the day and the CBOT soybean market fell again, with a drop in bran futures of more than 1,5%, probably due to forecasts of rain in Argentina from February 12th.

Wednesday (8/2) started on a positive note, awaiting the new numbers that would be released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), ending the date in a stable session.

On Thursday (9/2) the CBOT started rising after the USDA report pointing from 5,25 to 10,50 points, with the strongest increases in the closest contracts. Thus, March contracts returned to US$ 15,30 and May contracts to US$ 15,22 per bushel. However, the volatility presented during the week remained and oilseed futures fell again in the early afternoon of Thursday on the Chicago Stock Exchange.

This Friday morning (10/2) began operating with stability after a volatile week. Futures operated in mixed fields, with timid fluctuations, May rising 1,50 to US$ 15,13, while July was US$ 15,02, falling 0,25 points. The week ends with a saw effect, characterized by the rise and fall of prices.

Soybean marketing

Brazilian sales of the 2021/22 soybean harvest have already reached 97,7% of expected production, slightly above the result presented on that date for the 2020/21 harvest, which was 97,2%. According to Datagro Grãos, approximately 26,6% of the estimated soybean production for the 2022/23 harvest is commercially committed. This shows an increase of 2,0 p.p. compared to the previous survey. These sales reach approximately 42,0% in Mato Grosso, 41,0% in Bahia and Tocantins and 40,1% in Piauí.

On Wednesday this week, the USDA brought weekly export sales figures, which were within market expectations. Sales for the week ending February 2 were 459,4 thousand tons from the 2022/23 harvest. The largest responsible for this volume was China. The department's estimate for 22/23 sales is 54,16 million tons.

Tarken Quotes

• Querência - R$ 155,67;

• Miners - R$ 160,84;

• Ferries - R$ 140,79;

• São Desidério - R$ 152,22.