Despite the pandemic, soybean, rice and corn indicators reach nominal records

Some agricultural markets appear to be bypassing the current turbulent scenario, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, and continue to record a good pace of trading and rising prices. This week, the soybean, corn and rice indicators reached nominal records in the respective series from Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), from Esalq/USP.

Bag of soybeans is traded above R$100 in Paranaguá

Firm external and domestic demands, rising international prices and the high dollar – which makes the Brazilian commodity more attractive – have boosted soybean values ​​in Brazil. Furthermore, as a way to combat the spread of the coronavirus, the Argentine government limited movement in the country's ports, a scenario that favors Brazilian sales of soybeans and derivatives. According to Cepea researchers, in recent weeks, the pace of oilseed shipments has continued at “full steam”, with agents even signaling difficulties in obtaining new port quotas by the end of this first half of the year.

In this scenario, since the beginning of this week, the Paranaguá ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Indicator has closed above R$ 100,00/60 kg bag, this being the highest nominal level in the Cepea historical series, started in March 2006 for this product . In real terms, the highest level in the series was recorded in September 2012, when the oilseed was traded at an average of R$ 130,41/bag (values ​​were deflated by the IGP-DI). This Tuesday, the 31st, the Paranaguá Indicator closed at R$ 101,21/bag, accumulating an increase of 12,63% in March.

Restricted corn supply has sustained upward movement since September/19

Corn supply remains restricted in Brazil, a context that has kept prices rising since September last year. Cepea researchers indicate that, even with the summer harvest approaching its end, many producers have preferred to negotiate soybeans over corn.

Furthermore, cereal sellers are staying away from the market, in the expectation that prices will continue to increase in the coming weeks, based on low carryover stocks and problems in the supply of first harvest corn, which have reduced the availability of the cereal at this time. Furthermore, there is concern about the development of second-crop crops. Buyers, in turn, need to replenish short-term stocks and, to do so, end up giving in and positively readjusting prices.

This Tuesday, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Indicator (Campinas – SP) reached R$ 60,14/bag of 60 kg, the highest nominal value in Cepea's historical series for this product, which began in August 2004. In real terms (values updated by the IGP-DI), the highest deflated level in the Cepea series, of R$ 68,50/sc, was verified in December 2007. In March, the Indicator registered an increase of almost 13%.

Rice harvest advances in RS, but price continues to rise

Despite the harvest period, when values ​​traditionally drop, due to greater availability, for paddy rice, the scenario is the opposite at this time. According to a Cepea survey, prices have been rising, reaching, this Tuesday, a nominal record in the Research Center's historical series, which began in this case in 2005.

The ESALQ/SENAR-RS paddy rice indicator closed at R$51,92/50 kg bag this Tuesday, accumulating an increase of 4,83% in March. In real terms, that is, considering the effects of inflation, the highest level ever seen by Cepea was in May 2008, when a 50 kg bag was traded at an average of R$66,95.

Cepea researchers indicate that the increase is linked to the decline of rice farmers and also to greater buyer interest. In this case, national consumers began to purchase larger volumes, forcing retailers to source from wholesalers and, in turn, from processing mills.

Other information about Cepea's research on the soybean, corn and rice markets: www.cepea.esalq.usp.br