The Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo) brought together representatives from wheat-producing states on the afternoon of Thursday, October 29th, in the webinar “National Harvest 20/21”, which addressed, mainly, the challenging scenario for the industry due to the increase in costs and the price of wheat on national and international markets, under the moderation of the general head of Embrapa Trigo, Osvaldo Vasconcellos Vieira.
“We are living in a very delicate period for the wheat sector and there is little care. The imbalance that exists regarding the global circumstances of the external and internal markets makes the 2020/2021 outlook very difficult for the mills”, highlighted the executive president of Abitrigo, Rubens Barbosa.
Representing the Cerrado, the president of ATRIEMG – Association of Wheat Growers of the State of Minas Gerais, Eduardo Elias Abrahim gave a brief summary about grain production in the region.
According to him, Minas Gerais should register approximately 250 thousand tons, a large part of which will be practically sold, with the exception of some large producers who held around 30 thousand tons in stock. In Goiás the volume can reach 140 thousand tons and, in the Federal District, the cooperative estimates that the number is close to 15 thousand tons. In the state of Bahia the numbers are imprecise, but a harvest of 20 thousand tons is believed.
“In the coming years, these numbers in the Cerrado should grow and we are very optimistic, mainly due to the quality of the wheat offered, with emphasis on production from Minas Gerais”, highlighted Abrahim.
The harvest has progressed completely in the state of São Paulo, according to the report of Moinho Anaconda's supply manager, Nelson Montagna. “In addition to the already known production areas involving the municipalities of Itapeva, Itapetininga and Avaré, the southwest of the state is emerging.”
São Paulo producers should harvest just under 300 thousand tons by the end of this harvest. “Around 35 to 40% of the harvest in São Paulo has already been negotiated. In crushing, the export balance leaves us with supply and demand of approximately 140 thousand tons, which need to be sought outside the state of São Paulo. It is still more advantageous than importing”, concluded Montagna.
The harvest yielded good wheat, but with different characteristics from other years: very extensible and not very tenacious, even though varieties were developed for this purpose. The tendency for this change is notably due to water and heat stress, found in all wheat.
The harvest in Paraná is heading towards the end of the harvest: 3 million tons have already been harvested, with around 200 thousand tons still to be harvested, according to data presented by the Manager of Cotriguaçu – Moinho de Trigo Unit, Vilson Noetzold. “A harvest of 3,2 million is considered a good harvest, considering that volumes above 3 million are not repeated in the state”, he highlighted.
The manager also highlighted that the state sold around 700 to 800 thousand tons in future contracts, with 2,2 million tons remaining to be sold. “Although the beginning of the harvest was impacted by frost and rain, the harvest continued to a good quality standard. The producer is receiving information that wheat will rise even more and is holding the crop for sale. The scenario is expensive, valued, but it is still better to pay a little more for domestic wheat than to look for wheat abroad”, he explained.
“Wheat rose 60% and flour 20% in the year. Our homework is to learn to adapt to the market. It is not an easy task, there is resistance, but it is necessary to pass on the price for survival reasons. If we pay more for wheat, we have to pass on this cost,” she found.
The director of Moinho Catarinense and president of Sinditrigo/SC (Santa Catarina Wheat Industries Union), Egon Werner reinforced, in his participation, that Santa Catarina does not have a single identity in wheat production.
According to him, the northern plateau of the state should finish harvesting in the next 15 days, with a volume of around 50 bags and good quality. The Campos Novos region still does not have volumes and in the West of the state, with a similar bias to Rio Grande do Sul, harvesting has started, but has not yet reached 30% of the wheat harvested.
“There was an increase in area, but factors such as drought and frost took away the advantage that would have been had in volume. According to Conab, it was estimated at something above 200 thousand tons, but there was a 20% drop in this volume. Production should be around 140 and 150 thousand tons, equal to the 2019 harvest”, informed Werner.
“The crushing should be just over 460 thousand tons. This means that we need to bring more than 200 thousand tons into the state, with 60 thousand tons of wheat being imported and the rest coming from Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná”, he added.
“Our market understood that, with the new harvest, the mills would be replaced, stabilizing the market and prices. Which didn't happen. The state as a whole should have production of 2 million tons”, said Wheat Trader at Serra Morena Corretora, Walter Von Muhlen Filho.
The Trader highlighted that, largely due to the drought, wheat had a very low yield, resulting in good quality, but little volume. “There was a commitment of 850 thousand tons for export and, with the crop failure, many traders are renegotiating contracts in an attempt to manage this reality. It is speculated that exports will be around 700 thousand tons”.
The webinar “National Harvest 20/21” can be seen in full on the Abitrigo channel on YouTube.
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