Rural default rate reaches 7,9% in the 1st quarter of 2025

Unpublished data from Serasa Experian shows that default rates among the rural population that works as individuals increased in the first quarter of 2025. According to the datatech, the national rate reached 7,9% in the period, an increase of 0,3% compared to the last quarter of 2024, and 0,9% compared to the first quarter of 2024. 

According to Marcelo Pimenta, head of agribusiness at Serasa Experian, the fluctuation was expected. Although it is necessary to consider that during the past year, even with more rigorous credit granting policies and other instabilities in the sector, the default rate had not exceeded 7%. 

“In a way, we can see this fact in a positive light, as it proves the resilience of the entire agricultural chain, which, despite the challenges of costs and revenue losses, continues, for the most part, to honor financial commitments and economically promote this sector, which is so important for the country,” he says. 

Financial behavior

In the document, the breakdown by size showed that “Large Landowners” had the highest percentage of default in the period analyzed, at 10,7% and exceeding the national average. In addition to them, those “Without Rural Registration”, that is, tenants or members of economic/family groups, also stood out, at 9,5%. Next came medium-sized landowners, at 7,8% and small landowners, less affected, at 7,2%.

For Pimenta, the emphasis on large landowners reflects a behavioral issue. “Even with more criteria for granting credit, these are profiles that tend to take on larger volumes of financing, increasing exposure to possible risks and economic fluctuations in the market,” he explains.

Analysis by region

The analysis by region showed that the North of the country has the highest percentage of individuals working in agribusiness with their names in the red. Next were the Northeast, the Central-West, the Southeast and the South - which continues to have the lowest percentages.

The mapping also identified which Federative Units accumulated the highest and lowest percentages of rural default. The regionalized data are described in the graph below: 

Scenario for creditors

Taking into account the sectors of indebtedness of the rural population, that is, the creditors from whom they contracted their debts, the survey showed that “Financial Institutions” – which finance activities in the field – have the largest representation, at 7,1%. However, the share of rural property owners in default in the “Agricultural Sector” and “Other Related Sectors” is very small, at 0,3% and 0,1%, respectively. Both categories represent products and services, such as agro-processing industries and agricultural wholesale trade, agricultural support services, production and resale of inputs and agricultural machinery, rural producers, non-life insurance companies, transportation and storage.

“It is interesting to analyze how the agricultural chain shows a positive scenario in relation to default in this sense. We need to reinforce this differentiation since, while in general only 7,9% of rural landowners are in default, in this segment, the percentage is even lower”, concludes Pimenta.