Rural credit shrinks and worries producers in the 2025/26 Harvest

The availability of official credit to finance the 2025/2026 harvest is expected to fall significantly, from 30% to 20% of the total needs of the agricultural sector. With the reduction in resources and high interest rates, producers will need to turn to the financial market to raise funds at rates that may exceed 25% per year, increasing production costs and putting pressure on food prices.

According to the Soybean Producers Association (Aprosoja), the agricultural sector is facing a period of uncertainty given the current macroeconomic outlook. The increase in interest rates, which reached 14,25% and could reach 15,25% by the end of the year, makes credit more expensive and reduces producers' investment capacity. The Agricultural and Livestock Plan (PAP) 2025/2026, which will define the financing conditions for the sector, should have a volume of resources similar to that of last year, insufficient to cover the increase in production costs and the expansion of the cultivated area.

Less credit, lower production and more expensive food

With the reduction of subsidies and the high cost of money, many producers will need to resort to financing with free interest, such as Rural Producer Bonds (CPR), further burdening agricultural activity. The reduction in resources also impacts Rural Insurance, which should cover only 6% of the cultivated area, compared to 10% in the previous cycle. The result will be an environment of greater risk and less predictability for producers, making it more difficult to obtain credit from financial institutions.

The drop in financing is expected to have a direct impact on food supply, raising prices for the end consumer. With the increase in production costs and the debt of producers, food inflation could worsen even further in the coming months.

Given the challenging scenario, industry entities are advocating for an increase in the budget for the Safra Plan. The National Congress is expected to analyze a Bill to increase the resources allocated to rural credit and Rural Insurance, with an additional contribution of at least R$10 billion. The proposal seeks to increase the resources for operating expenses from R$1,5 billion to R$5 billion and for Rural Insurance from R$1 billion to R$4 billion.

The agricultural sector represents a significant portion of the Brazilian economy, with a Gross Production Value of approximately R$1,4 trillion and a total agribusiness GDP of over R$2,5 trillion. For producers and experts, a more robust Harvest Plan is essential to maintain the stability of agricultural production and avoid negative impacts on inflation and the country's economy.