Revenue from agricultural exports is a record in the 1st half of the year

The strong growth in global demand for food and energy has raised the prices of agribusiness products since the beginning of 2021. In 2022, the war in Ukraine worsened the supply and demand situation, which was already tight due to the pandemic, which, It is worth remembering, it led to a reduction in operations between producing countries, with consequent disruptions in global value chains and an increase in sea freight. The scenario of sharply rising prices in the international market guaranteed Brazilian agribusiness, an important global exporter of food and energy, successive records in foreign sales.

Research by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), Esalq/USP, carried out based on data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Economy), shows that, from January to June 2022, the volume exported by national agribusiness fell 1% compared to the same period of the previous year, but prices in dollars rose 28%. Therefore, revenue totaled US$79 billion in the first half of the year, 26% above that recorded in the same period in 2021 and a record.

Even in the face of record revenue in dollars, in national currency, real revenue did not show the same performance, due to the inflationary process observed in Brazil throughout the first half of 2022. The rise in the real price in Reais in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 was limited to approximately 6%. 

As for products exported by national agribusiness from January to June this year, those from the soybean complex continue to lead the sector's performance. Soybeans and their derivatives represented almost 48% of agribusiness's external revenue in the first half of 2022, followed by meat, forest products, coffee and those from the sugar and alcohol complex. On the purchasing side, the highlight was China, as expected (representing 35% of agribusiness' external revenue), followed by the European Union and the United States (with 16% and 6,5%, respectively).

Money Exchange

In the first six months of 2022, the share of agribusiness in the country's trade balance was 48%, surpassing the share obtained in the same period of 2021. With this result, the sector's trade balance (exports minus imports of agricultural products) was positive , by more than US$70 billion, offsetting the trade deficit in other sectors of the Brazilian economy and contributing to a trade surplus of more than US$30 billion.

perspectives

Attention in this second semester is focused on the progress of the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. The harvest in the United States and the evolution of shipments of Ukrainian grains will play a crucial role in containing the rise in food prices – which, it should be noted, has already shown a certain slowdown.

Thus, if the first half of 2022 was marked by energy and food inflations in the world, due to the war in Ukraine and its consequences, for the second half, the fight against inflation, which will be due to the continued rise in interest rates in the States In the United States and Europe, fears of a recession in the world economy in the coming months have increased, which could help contain the rise in external commodity prices. This is because the result of these policies can be less pressure on demand and growth in supply, removing space for intense increases in food prices, and, of course, if there are no significant losses in global supply, due to adverse weather events.