Researchers simulate the trajectory of the locust cloud until 25/07

Since last Saturday, 18/7, GDISPEN researchers have been presenting simulations and estimates of the trajectory of the locust cloud that is on the border of Argentina and Uruguay. At laboratory page details about the model used and the swarm are found. To date, there are 3 clouds of locusts located in South America, 2 in Argentina and 1 in Paraguay.

The WRF model was used to forecast the wind fields, starting on 21/7 at 12UTC until 25/07 at 12UTC (in local time, 9am on the morning of 21/7 until 9am on the morning of 25/7). Remembering that cloud displacements are determined in 80% of cases by the direction of the wind and that temperatures above 20°C favor insect flight. The temperature fields at 850hPa and at 2m are presented together. With rain and lower temperatures forecast between Friday and Saturday, the likelihood of the cloud moving will decrease. The animation containing the wind fields and temperatures for the days in question is below. (To view the animation click on the figures)

CLOUD 1

Comparison of current cloud location and projected scenarios for Tuesday, 21/7

In the publication on 20/7, 2 scenarios were proposed for the possible trajectories of the insects. According to SENASA, the cloud moved, leaving the neighborhood of San José de Feliciano, province of Entre Ríos in Argentina and heading towards the interior of the municipality of Federación on the border with Uruguay (it is 17 km from the border with Uruguay). The municipality of Federación is 86 km, as the crow flies, from Barra do Quaraí in RS. Like this, the second scenario was confirmed in which it was estimated that the cloud would travel approximately 80 km.

Estimated trajectory of cloud 1 until Saturday, 25/7

An estimate of the swarm's trajectory is presented below, starting from the city of Federación. The wind field forecast data from the WRF model, initialized on 21/7 at 12UTC, is used. This species can travel up to 150 km/day, but in recent days it has traveled approximately between 40 and 80 km/day. The estimate of 2 possible trajectories is presented: in a first scenario, it is assumed that the cloud travels 40 km/day; in a second scenario, 80 km/day. The complete trajectories are described in the following figure – Scene 1: red circles (approximately 40 km/day); Scene 2: blue circles (approximately 80 km/day). If any of these scenarios are confirmed, the cloud will not reach the border with RS.

Next, the possible scenarios are presented separately in animations.

Scenario 1: Cloud moves 40 km/day (To view the animation click on the

If the prediction of scenario 1 is confirmed, on Saturday 25/7, it is estimated that the cloud will remain between the region of the cities of Biassini Celeste and El Eucaliptus, in Uruguay, around 145 km (in a straight line) from the city of Artigas and around 170km (in a straight line) from Rivera, the border with RS.

Scenario 2: Cloud moves 80 km/day (To view the animation click on the 

If the forecast for scenario 2 is confirmed, on Saturday 25/7, it is estimated that the cloud could reach the region close to the city of Curtina, in Uruguay. The region is approximately 135 km (as the crow flies) from the city of Rivera and 185 km (as the crow flies) from the city of Aceguá, in RS.

For a better visualization, below is the expected route for this Wednesday, 22/7, assuming that the swarm leaves Federación and travels 40 or 80 km per day. The forecast wind field and temperature are also displayed.

If scenario 1 is confirmed, it is estimated that this Wednesday the cloud will reach Uruguay, the city of San Antonio. If scenario 2 is confirmed, it is estimated that the cloud will approach Laureles in Uruguay.

CLOUD 2

An estimate of the trajectory of the swarm is presented below. cloud 2, which is currently located in General Güemes, in the Del Chaco Province, Argentine territory, and approximately 600 km (as the crow flies) from the Brazilian border. The wind field forecast data from the WRF model, initialized on 21/7 at 12UTC, is used. The estimate of 2 possible trajectories is presented: in a first scenario, it is assumed that the cloud travels 40 km/day; in a second scenario, 80 km/day. The complete trajectories are described in the following figure – Scene 1: red circles (approximately 40 km/day); Scene 2: blue circles (approximately 80 km/day).

Next, the possible scenarios are presented separately in animations. Between Friday and Saturday, we have a counterclockwise wind rotation, causing the cloud to follow the change. Due to this, it is estimated that cloud 2 remains within the Del Chaco Province.

Scenario 1: Cloud moves 40 km/day (To view the animation click on the 

Scenario 2: Cloud moves 80 km/day (To view the animation click on the 

More information

New estimates will be presented whenever a new location of the swarm is released by SENASA. It is important to remember that these simulations come from a mathematical model, and as such are an approximation of reality, and therefore have inherent errors. Furthermore, the trajectory can be altered according to changes due to the movement of the species, in addition to climatological changes such as rain and cold.

The GDISPEN researchers involved in this research are doctors Fernanda Tumelero, Viliam Cardoso da Silveira, Guilherme Jahnecke Weymar, Daniela Buske, Régis Sperotto de Quadros, Glênio Aguiar Gonçalves, Igor da Cunha Furtado, Alexandre Sacco Athayde and Luciana Rossato Piovesan.