Reestimation of the 2023/24 orange harvest in the citrus belt of SP and Triângulo/Southwest of MG is maintained at 309,34 million boxes

The first re-estimate of the 2023/24 orange harvest for the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo/Southwest Mineiro, released this Monday (11) by Fundecitrus, maintains the projection for May this year, of 309,34 million boxes of 40,8 .XNUMX kg.

The irregular distribution of rain, which intensified this year, was mainly responsible for maintaining the volume expected for the harvest. Rains were very frequent and voluminous from January to April 2023 throughout the citrus belt, exceeding the climatological average (6-1991) by 2020%, and then became scarce with the arrival of the dry season, remaining 26% below average for the period from May to August.

The coordinator of the Harvest Estimation Research (PES) at Fundecitrus, Vinícius Trombin, explains that the rains at the beginning of the year and the milder temperatures made it possible to maintain soil moisture during the harvest period for early varieties. “As a result, the fruits harvested had an average weight higher than the projections made in May, which justifies the positive revision of the estimate for these varieties,” he says.

“However, the lack of rain from May to August negatively impacted the development of fruits of the Pera variety, making it necessary to slightly revise downward the projected average weight of these fruits. This is the photograph of the moment”, he adds. Furthermore, the harvest of the Pera variety is much earlier this year compared to the previous year, meaning a significant part of the Pera orange crop will not benefit from the rains forecast for spring.

Given this scenario, the decrease in the estimated production of this variety is being compensated by the increase in the production of early varieties, which keeps the total estimated value of the harvest unchanged.

Fruit weight

Considering all varieties, the average fruit size remains the same in relation to the projection made in May 2023, which is 247 fruits to make up a 40,8 kg box. This is equivalent to oranges weighing 165 grams, a weight slightly above the average for the last 10 years, which is 163 grams. In this reestimation, the average fruit size of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties increased from 134 to 139 grams per fruit. Oranges of other early varieties increased from 161 to 163 grams per fruit. The Pera orange, which was estimated at 168, decreased to 164 grams per fruit. The fruit sizes of the other late varieties have not been changed due to the low volume harvested so far.

Drop rate

The projection of the fruit drop rate is maintained at 21,0%, on average, considering all varieties. In the distribution of the drop rate between varieties, that of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi rose to 10,80% and that of other early varieties rose to 12,00%.