Record harvest will supply the country and guarantee exports

The executive director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies (Dipai) of the National Supply Company (Conab), Sergio De Zen, projected the grain harvest for the next harvest at 308 million tons. This Tuesday (06/09) he participated in a meeting of Fiesp's Superior Agribusiness Council (Cosag).

Even though production does not necessarily cause food prices to fall, it should bring relief to the population and Brazilian producers. “They will be able to supply the domestic market and continue to be internationally relevant for the export of most commodities”, assessed the president of Cosag, Jacyr Costa.

When presenting data relating to the 2022/23 harvest, De Zen highlighted the importance of Brazil for the foreign market. According to him, the world is always watching what happens here, as it wants to know what the country will produce. He recalled that projections are subject to several risk factors, but that their accuracy increases as time passes and the new season approaches.

For De Zen, the most important thing is to know whether production will be sufficient to supply the domestic market. The data indicates a projection of 125 million tons of corn, with an increase of 6,2% in productivity. In soybeans, production is expected to go from 124 million tons to 150 million tons. “Brazilian corn is in great demand around the world, as depending on the region, the quality is higher. As a result, 37% of our harvest is guaranteed for export. And 80% of soybean planting has already been sold,” said De Zen.

In cotton, Conab predicts growth of around 6,8%, with an increase in area, productivity and production. In relation to rice, the situation is more delicate, as it is more difficult to transport production abroad, it is necessary to carefully calibrate the supply. “There is an estimated shrinkage of 1% in the area, but with an increase of 1,4% in productivity and 4,2% more in production, which should exceed 11 million tons,” he said. The ideal is to supply the domestic market and have some surplus for abroad.

A more complex product, beans will have demand adjusted to production. De Zen drew attention to its peculiarities: very small inflationary impact and with a correlation contrary to the economic moment. “If the economy is doing well, bean consumption decreases. It is not a storable product and is more susceptible to extremely high climate risks”, he explained.

Conab's estimates are based on the combination of several models and analysis by the field harvest team and market analysis, and only then can they determine the scenario.

Regarding meat, De Zen said that there will be an increase in the supply of chicken meat. And, although pig farming was the sector that suffered the most in the last year, Brazil is very efficient and competitive in this culture.

When talking about beef cattle farming, the director of Conab explained that there is a very long cycle and a very high international cost. “Either you occupy an increasingly scarce production factor, which is land, or you use a lot of grain in confinement, which makes the process more expensive. Beef tends to be a higher quality and lower quantity product than in the past. We project growth of around 3% in beef supply for 2023, which limits the planting area,” he said. For this reason, it is essential to focus on “increasing land productivity”, he concluded.