Rains should favor soybean planting in Mato Grosso

Rains are expected to return to Mato Grosso in the second half of September. The ECMWF and GFS climate models predict a change in the climate, which should favor the replenishment of moisture and create safer conditions for the start of soybean planting, according to EarthDaily, a company specializing in monitoring agricultural areas using satellite data.

Currently, the situation remains critical in the state, as there has been virtually no rain in recent weeks and soil moisture has reached one of its lowest levels in 30 years. The heat is exacerbating the situation, with temperatures reaching over 40°C (XNUMX°F), intensifying evapotranspiration, according to data collected by the company.

"If confirmed, the arrival of rains will be earlier than in 2024 and similar to the 2022 pattern for the month of September. However, there is divergence regarding the intensity of rainfall forecast for the state," explains Felippe Reis, crop analyst at EarthDaily. "While the European ECMWF model projects above-average rainfall in some areas of Mato Grosso, the American GFS model predicts more limited rainfall," he adds.

According to climate models, drought is expected to persist in the short term across much of the country. However, in addition to Mato Grosso, significant rainfall is also forecast in Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and parts of the Northeast. In Goiás and the South of the country, soil moisture remains satisfactory, ensuring a favorable scenario for sowing. In these regions, producers can now proceed with planting with greater confidence.

In Paraná, the climate scenario shows more pronounced differences. In the northern region of the state, humidity is below average and could reach its lowest level in the last 10 years in the coming weeks, which could lead producers to postpone soybean and summer corn planting.

Regardless of the differences between the models, both indicate temperatures above the climatological average in the Central-West, Northeast and South, a factor that may limit the recovery of humidity in drier areas.