Rain returns to the South with risk of hail

Starting this Thursday (26/6), the South of Brazil will once again face a period of climate instability, with forecasts of heavy rain, gusts of wind, lightning and the possibility of hail in isolated areas. The rainfall will reach from the south of Mato Grosso do Sul to the north of Rio Grande do Sul, passing through a large part of Paraná and Santa Catarina.

The highest accumulations are expected in the west of Santa Catarina and Paraná, with volumes between 30 and 70 millimeters. There is also a forecast of rain showers and thunderstorms in the south of São Paulo and in the central region of Mato Grosso do Sul, with shorter duration and intensity.

This Friday (27), instability will intensify over the south-central region of Mato Grosso do Sul and the southern strip and coast of São Paulo, with the possibility of reaching the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. Paraná should continue with persistent rains, while Santa Catarina will have isolated rainfall on the northern coast and nearby regions. The predicted volumes vary between 20 and 60 mm — and in some places they may be concentrated in short periods.

Rio Grande do Sul and the south-central part of Santa Catarina will have, this Friday, a window of more stable weather, with less cloudiness, mainly in the central and southern areas of the state.

On Saturday (28), instability will intensify again from the south of Santa Catarina and the north of Rio Grande do Sul, advancing towards the capital, central region and northern coast of the state. Accumulations may reach up to 110 mm. Given the saturation of the soil and the vulnerability in areas such as the Taquari and Jacuí River Valleys, Serra Gaúcha and the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre, the risk of worsening water conditions is high.

In the early hours of Sunday (29), the formation of a new cold front further reinforces the instability over Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm in some locations. Gusts of wind and electrical discharges are also expected. Throughout the night, the heaviest rains move to Paraná and the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, while they begin to lose strength in RS.

On Monday (30), the tendency is for the rains to weaken in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, but precipitation persists in localized areas of Paraná, Santa Catarina, southern São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. Between Tuesday (1/7) and Wednesday (2/7), new instabilities may once again affect Rio Grande do Sul.