Rains disrupt harvest and sugarcane milling drops 21,62%

In the second half of October, sugarcane milling by producing units in the Center-South region was 27,17 million tons, compared to 34,66 million in the 2023/2024 harvest – a drop of 21,62%. In the accumulated total from the start of the 2024/2025 harvest until November 1, milling reached 566,03 million tons, compared to 561,09 million tons recorded in the same period in the previous cycle – an increase of 0,88%.

In the second half of October, 250 production units operated in the Center-South region, of which 231 units processed sugarcane, nine companies produced ethanol from corn and ten flex plants. In the same period, in the 23/24 harvest, 258 production units operated.

By the end of the second half of October, 27 units had finished milling. Since the beginning of the 2024/2025 cycle, 38 units had finished operations. In the same period of the previous harvest, 26 plants had finished milling.

In addition to the end of the harvest in some units, the reduction in fortnightly milling was associated with the difficulty of operationalizing the harvest in Goiás, Minas Gerais and in the central and northwest regions of São Paulo, which were impacted by the rains.

Regarding the quality of the raw material, the level of Total Recoverable Sugars (ATR) recorded in the second half of October reached 149,48 kg of ATR per ton of sugarcane, against 146,14 kg per ton in the 2023/2024 harvest - a positive variation of 2,28%. In the accumulated harvest, the indicator marks 142,58 kg of ATR per ton, a slightly higher index (1,04%) than the last cycle in the same position.

Sugar and ethanol production

Sugar production in the second half of October totaled 1,78 million tons, a 24,30% drop compared to the amount observed in the same period in the 2023/2024 harvest (2,36 million tons). In the accumulated period from the beginning of the harvest until November 1, the production of the sweetener totaled 37,38 million tons, compared to 37,27 million tons in the previous cycle (+0,27%).

In the last fortnight of October, only 46,12% of the available raw material was directed to sugar production, compared to 48,85% observed in the same period of the 2023/2024 harvest.

Ethanol production by the Center-South units, in turn, reached 1,64 billion liters, of which 990,3 million liters were hydrated ethanol (-8,22%) and 650,3 million liters were anhydrous ethanol (-8,03%). In the current agricultural cycle, biofuel production totaled 28,85 billion liters (+6,87%), of which 18,38 billion were hydrated ethanol (+15,11%) and 10,46 billion were anhydrous ethanol (-5,08%).

Of the total ethanol produced in the second half of October, 21,8% was produced from corn, which produced 357,92 million liters this year, compared to 268,62 million liters in the same period of the 2023/2024 cycle – an increase of 33,25%. In the accumulated total from the beginning of the harvest until November 1, corn ethanol production reached 4,49 billion liters – an increase of 27,80% compared to the same period last year.

Ethanol sales

In October, ethanol sales totaled 3,03 billion liters, which represents a positive variation of 4,65% compared to the same period of the 2023/2024 harvest.

In the domestic market, the volume of hydrated ethanol sold by the Center-South units totaled 1,82 billion liters, which represents an increase of 6,27% compared to the same period of the previous harvest. The sale of anhydrous ethanol, in turn, reached the mark of 1,09 million liters, an increase of 13,21%.

From the beginning of the harvest until the end of October, ethanol sales by units in the Center-South totaled 20,86 billion liters, representing growth of 14,38%. The accumulated volume of hydrated ethanol totaled 13,49 billion liters (+25,96%), while anhydrous ethanol reached 7,37 billion liters (-2,09%).

“Since August 2023, the price of hydrated ethanol at the pump has been 73% lower than that recorded for gasoline in São Paulo, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais and Paraná, offering the possibility of decarbonization with savings to owners of flex-fuel vehicles. As a reflection of the competitiveness of biofuel, sales of hydrated ethanol have continued to register robust annual growth, with an average increase of over 46% in 2024”, explained Luciano Rodrigues, Director of Sector Intelligence at Unica.

CBios market

Data from B3 up to November 11th indicate the issuance of 36,04 million credits in 2024 by biofuel producers. The amount of CBios available for trading held by the obligated party, non-obligated party and issuers totals 29,17 million decarbonization credits.

“Adding the CBios available for sale and the credits already retired to meet the 2024 target, we already have a sufficient number of titles to fully meet the quantity required by the Program on December 31 of this year,” highlighted the director of Unica.