Rain and intense heat mark the next quarter in the country

Inmet's agroclimatic forecast for December 2024 to February 2025 predicts temperatures above the historical average throughout Brazil. Rainfall is expected to vary between average and above normal in most regions, with the exception of specific areas where volumes may be lower, impacting soil moisture and water resource management.

Northern Region

Most of the region is expected to experience near-average or above-average rainfall. However, central-eastern Pará, Tocantins, and eastern Amapá may experience below-average rainfall. Higher temperatures are expected especially for Pará, Tocantins, and part of Amazonas. Roraima, in turn, will continue to have low water storage levels.

North East Region

Below-average rainfall dominates the scenario, with the lowest volumes expected in north-central Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Pernambuco. The region will face intense heat, with temperatures above the historical average and low soil moisture levels, except in Maranhão and western Bahia, which may show a slight recovery in January.

Midwest region

Rainfall is expected to be regular or above average in most of the region, except in northern Goiás and northeastern Mato Grosso. Soil moisture will remain high in Goiás and Mato Grosso, except in specific areas of Mato Grosso do Sul.

Southeast

Above-average rainfall is expected for São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo and south-central Minas Gerais, while northern Minas Gerais may experience lower volumes. Temperatures are likely to be high, but cold fronts and humidity corridors may ease the heat.

South

The east of Santa Catarina and parts of Paraná will have above-average rainfall, but the southeast of Rio Grande do Sul could face drier conditions. Heat will predominate, but the arrival of cold fronts could cause periods of milder temperatures.

Climate impacts and trends

Factors such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Dipole continue to influence the climate in Brazil. The probability of a La Niña event is 62% by February, decreasing to 50% in the following months. These conditions will continue to directly impact agriculture and the distribution of water resources in the country.