Rainier and less cold winter in SC: see what agricultural production will look like

According to Epagri/Ciram, the forecast for the quarter July, August and September this year, in Santa Catarina, is for more frequent rain and with high totals, especially in the areas of the State closest to Rio Grande do Sul. “A The forecast is for a slightly cold winter, interspersed with warmer periods, as occurred this past June”, highlights meteorologist Marilene de Lima.

She explains that the rainfall condition between close to and above the climatological average expected for the regions of Santa Catarina in the coming months is associated with El Niño, expected to occur during the winter and with moderate to strong intensity. “The phenomenon also favors temperatures between average and above average in the July-August-September quarter. Cold air masses bring a decline in temperature and episodes of frost and/or snow, which will be short-lived, with a greater chance of dry spells,” she says.

Meteorologist Laura Rodrigues explains that the winter of 2023 is already being very different from recent years: “Between 2020 and 2022, La Niña was set in motion and favored days of prolonged cold, with long periods of drought in southern Brazil. In El Niño years, on the contrary, days with more frequent and well-distributed rain are common in SC. The last El Niño event of moderate to strong intensity occurred in 2015-2016, when rains were frequent and voluminous in the State, during the winter and spring of 2015,” says Laura.

winter crops

For winter crops, such as garlic and onions – crops that are mostly irrigated – excess rainfall can cause phytosanitary problems, resulting in an increase in production costs due to the increase in the number of fungicide sprays, as well as problems with soil erosion resulting from of floods, which in regions with greater slopes, can cause significant economic losses to producers.

For winter cereals, especially wheat, the concern of technicians and producers is the forecast of excessive rain for the months of October/November, a period that coincides with the maturation and harvest phases of the crop. If these predictions are confirmed, Santa Catarina may experience losses in productivity due to the increased occurrence of fungal diseases (Brusone and Giberella), which directly harm the quality of the wheat grain, reducing the commercial value of the harvested product, with losses that are normally irreversible.

Producers who do not plant directly on straw may have problems with erosion from the runoff of the surface layers of the soil, causing economic losses. Likewise, storms with strong winds may occur, causing damage to orchards and improvements.

Summer crops

According to the socio-economic and agricultural planning analyst at Epagri/Cepa, Haroldo Tavares Elias, the rain condition between close to and above the climatological average expected for the regions of Santa Catarina in the coming months could favor the cultivation of corn and the development of native and cultivated pastures , if well distributed throughout the spring. “Remembering that in the last three years we have had periods of prolonged drought, especially in the Far West of Santa Catarina and in the Uruguay River Valley region”, he says.

The regions of Chapecó and São Miguel do Oeste concentrate around 50% of the area cultivated with corn for silage purposes. “In these regions, agroecological zoning establishes favorable cultivation from August and September. It is important to highlight that corn silage is the basis of feed for dairy production”, emphasizes the analyst.

He states that corn is a crop that demands a lot of water, but it is also one of the most efficient in using this resource. “A medium cycle variety grown for dry grain production consumes 500 to 700 mm of water in its complete cycle, depending on climatic conditions. The period of maximum demand is during the dolling phase or shortly after, which is why water deficits that occur during this period are those that cause the greatest reductions in productivity. Deficit prior to dollification reduces productivity by 20 to 30%; in dollification by 40 to 50% and after that by 10 to 20%”, explains Haroldo, reinforcing that the extension of the period of water deficit is also important, as it was what significantly affected production in 2021 and 2022 in the State.

The preferred soybean cultivation period begins in October. This species is more resistant to short periods of drought. “If excessive rainfall occurs during the development cycle, fungal diseases may occur in greater intensity and increase production costs due to the application of fungicides and other agrochemicals”, explains the analyst.