Probability of La Niña is above 70%, says Copaaergs

The forecast models for defining the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENOS) event from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), used by the Permanent Council of Applied Agrometeorology of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (Copaaergs), point to a probability above 70% that La Niña conditions will begin during the spring of 2021 and remain until the summer of 2021/2022.

The climate forecast for the month of October indicates a reduction in rainfall and an increase in daytime temperature, which produces an increase in evapotranspiration, especially in the second half of the month. For the month of November, the models also point to a reduction in rainfall, with a predominance of colder nights and hotter days, a pattern characteristic of very dry periods. For December, rainfall patterns and temperatures closer to the climatological average are expected. Copaaergs' quarterly forecasts are obtained through the Model of the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) and the Center for Meteorological Research and Forecasts (CPMET) at UFPel.

The Council's bulletin is prepared every three months by Agrometeorology experts from 14 state and federal public entities linked to agriculture or climate. The document also lists a series of technical guidelines for the cultures of the period.

Grain-producing autumn-winter crops (wheat, oats, barley)

Rice

Grain-producing spring-summer crops (corn, soybeans, beans)

Vegetables

fruit growing

Forestry

foragers