PR 2024/25 Harvest: soybean production expected to fall by 4%

The progress of the harvest of the first grain crop 2024/25 presents different scenarios. While beans may have higher than expected productivity, soybeans, the state's main agricultural product, were affected by weather conditions, especially in the period between mid-December and January, resulting in a loss of approximately 1 million tons so far.

The new figures for the Subjective Harvest Forecast (PSS) were released this Thursday (30) by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), of the State Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply (Seab). “Among the first-harvest products, soybeans have had the most problems so far, while beans have surpassed the estimate and corn is within expectations; the large second-harvest crops are following the department’s estimates,” said the head of Deral, Marcelo Garrido.

Soybeans - Soybean production was revised to 21,3 million tons. This represents a 4% decrease compared to the 22,3 million tons initially forecast, although it is 15% higher than the 18,5 million tons obtained last year.

“The current number is particularly frustrating when we consider the excellent crop conditions that were present until mid-December, when there was still an indication that a new record could be set for the crop,” commented agronomist Carlos Hugo Godinho, from Deral.

According to the survey conducted by Deral technicians, approximately 18% of the 5,77 million hectares have already been harvested. The work is concentrated in the regions that have had the most problems – the West, Northwest and Central-West. In the Toledo Regional Center, for example, approximately 84% of the area has already been harvested.

The state's average productivity to date is 134 bags per alqueire (55 bags per hectare). However, the observed disparity is large even in neighboring areas. "The progress of the work should bring better results, especially in the South region", believes Godinho. It is expected that in this region the yield will reach 160 bags per alqueire (66 bags per hectare).

In addition to the loss of productivity in soybeans, the price declines are also a concern for producers. Even with the appreciation in international prices, the exchange rate correction and the arrival of the new harvest are putting pressure on domestic prices. On December 19 of last year, the counter price per bag was R$127,57 on average. Last Wednesday (29) it was R$117,83, a drop of 8%.

Bean – the first crop of beans has been practically harvested in Paraná, with production expected to increase. It is likely that 341,7 thousand tons will be harvested from the 169,2 thousand hectares planted in this harvest. Last year, 107,8 thousand hectares were cultivated, with a production of 160,4 thousand tons.

Although specific problems were observed in this harvest, known as the “water harvest”, productivity in the South region, which accounts for 74% of the planting, stood out with slightly more regular rainfall and milder temperatures. The highlight was the Campos Gerais region, where productivity was 2.378 kilos per hectare.

“This value was achieved due to investment in technology combined with exceptional climate conditions, given the short crop cycle,” said Carlos Hugo Godinho. The average productivity in Paraná during this period is 2.020 kilos per hectare.

However, the current high supply is reflected in the price paid to producers. This situation may lead some producers to back off from planting the second bean crop, known as the “dry season crop”. Around 25% of the 365,8 thousand hectares planned have already been planted. The crops are developing well, with an estimated production of 666,8 thousand tons.

Corn - the harvest of the first crop of the product is starting now, with an estimated harvest of only 5% of the 260,7 thousand hectares planted. The condition of the product is good for 93% of the crops. “Productivity is a little better in the regions where it rained and the expectation is that it will improve further”, said Godinho.

The second harvest, which should cover more than 2,5 million hectares, has only 9% of planting completed. The return of rains in several regions of Paraná tends to benefit this crop and result in a harvest of more than 15,5 million tons.

Onion - The 2024/25 onion harvest is over in Paraná. 131,7 thousand tons were harvested, a volume 51,8% higher than the 88,8 thousand tons of the previous cycle. “The dry weather at the turn of the year contributed to the rapid evolution of the harvests in January, which had only been observed in two other harvests in the past decade”, analyzed agricultural engineer Paulo Andrade, from Deral.

The majority (47,6%) came from the fields of Guarapuava, followed by Curitiba (26,1%) and Irati (17%), which are responsible for 90,8% of the onions placed on the Paraná market. By last week, producers had already sold around 92,5 thousand tons.

The negative aspect is the price received by the producer. In December 2023, the price was R$59,06 per 20-kilo bag. Last month, the same bag was priced at R$18,99. “The excess of onions in the current harvest throughout the country contributed to low prices at all links in the chain,” noted the Deral agronomist.

Potato - The first crop of potatoes has been harvested on approximately 83% of the 17-hectare area, with good product quality. Of the nine regional centers that plant this crop, five have already finished harvesting. “Even with the dry season, due to the nature of the product, 95% of the crops are in good condition in the field,” commented Paulo Andrade.

The second potato harvest has exceeded 52% of the planting on 11,2 thousand hectares, and nothing has been harvested yet. Likewise, crops have performed well in at least 93% of the areas. The expectation is that the two harvests combined will result in 900 thousand tons of potatoes in the state.