New biofuel blends heat up grain market

As of August 1st, new mandatory biofuel blends will come into effect in the country: ethanol will be changed to E30 and biodiesel to B15, increasing the proportion of renewables in fossil fuels from 14% to 15%. The measure, approved by the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE), aims to reduce Brazil's dependence on imported fossil fuels, especially at a time of instability in the global energy market.

In addition to representing a strategic step towards energy self-sufficiency, the change has a direct impact on the agricultural market, especially in the corn and soybean chains. In the case of ethanol, the expectation is for an additional demand of up to 2 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol per year, a boost that tends to consolidate corn as the main vector of growth in biofuel production.

Yedda Monteiro, an intelligence and strategy analyst at Biond Agro, believes that the decision is more than a technical guideline: “The simultaneous adoption of B15 and E30 is a clear political and economic message: Brazil wants and can be a global player in the energy transition based on agriculture. The soybean and corn production chain will directly benefit from increased demand, investment and price predictability,” she says.

Corn gains new energy prominence and promotes regional investments

According to data from Biond Agro, Brazil may anticipate the use of more than 2025 million tons of corn in ethanol production by 30, a volume that was previously projected only for 2026. States such as Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia and Tocantins should be the main beneficiaries of investments in new corn ethanol industry facilities.

Furthermore, the new renewable energy policy also aims to decentralize energy production, with direct repercussions on inland regions linked to agribusiness. The trend is for the expansion of bioenergy to boost new ethanol and biodiesel production hubs outside of large urban centers, generating jobs, income and infrastructure in the countryside.

“The rise in biodiesel prices should boost domestic soybean consumption, but we still face challenges, such as strong dependence on the foreign market. Ideally, the growth of bioenergy should be accompanied by policies to stimulate the domestic industrial use of soybeans,” the analyst points out.

Soybeans also benefit 

The expansion of B14 to B15 also projects direct impacts on soybean processing in Brazil. According to the Biond survey, the country should process around 73 million tons of the grain in 2025, driven by domestic demand for bran and oil.

“This advance regulates the market, stimulates domestic crushing and reduces dependence on exports as the only alternative. It is an important step towards strengthening the country’s energy autonomy based on what we have best: our agriculture,” says Yedda.

The CNPE's decision comes amid an unstable geopolitical scenario in the Middle East, a region central to global oil supply. At the same time, it reinforces Brazil's commitment to a cleaner, more diversified and resilient energy matrix.

“The simultaneous increase in E30 and B15 shows that Brazil is investing in renewable fuels not only for sustainability, but as a vector for energy security and regional development,” concludes Yedda Monteiro.