National grain production is estimated at 269,3 million tons in the 2021/22 harvest

The seventh estimate of the 2021/22 grain harvest, released by the National Supply Company (Conab), this Thursday (07/04), indicates that grain production in the country could reach a total of 269,3 million tons , which represents 5,4% or 13,8 million tons higher than that obtained in the 2020/21 harvest. However, compared to the Company's first survey for the current harvest, when the forecast was 288,6 million tons, the volume represents a reduction of 6,7% or 19,3 million tons, due to adverse weather conditions observed in the states of the Southern Region and in the center-south of Mato Grosso do Sul, with greater losses in soybeans and corn.

“The result until the end of this harvest will depend greatly on climate behavior, a preponderant factor for the development of crops”, says the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro. “Between the months of March and April, the sowing of the second Brazilian harvest approaches completion, in which the corn crop stands out. Rains were more regular throughout the producing region, including in the south of the country, which allowed planting in good humidity conditions. The producer did his part. Now let’s wait for the weather.”

According to the survey, the total planted area in the country is estimated at 72,9 million hectares, that is, growth of 4,4% compared to the 2020/21 harvest. The largest area increases are observed in soybeans, with 4,1% or 1,6 million hectares, and in corn, with 6,5% or 1,3 million hectares.

In results by crop, soybean production is expected to be 122,4 million tons, a reduction of 11,4% compared to the previous harvest. “The good rainfall that occurred throughout practically the entire country helped in the recovery of a small portion of crops sown late in the South Region and in Mato Grosso do Sul, but did not reverse the decline in productivity, already announced in previous surveys”, reveals the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, Sergio De Zen. “Rio Grande do Sul remains the state most affected by the water deficit, followed by Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. In the opposite scenario, most other states achieved productivity higher than those obtained in the last harvest, with emphasis on Piauí, with a positive yield of 12,7%. However, the drop in the country's production was mitigated mainly by the 4,1% increase in the sown area, reaching 40,8 million hectares in this harvest”.

For corn, estimated production is 115,6 million tons, 32,7% higher than the previous cycle. The harvest of the 1st cereal crop is advanced, in the 2nd the development phase predominates and the 3rd crop begins planting from the second week of April. For the 2021/22 harvest, Conab highlights that, despite the increase in total volume, it is important to record the strong drop of 20,4% in productivity in the South region during the first harvest, a fact that caused a reduction of up to 15,6% % of production in that region. “This is explained by a severe water deficit caused by the lack of rain in the south of the country at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022”, explains the superintendent of Agricultural Information, Candice Santos. “On the other hand, it is worth pointing out that Conab projects an increase of 36,3% in corn productivity throughout the second harvest, as this will allow for the production of 88,5 million tons of cereal in the second cycle.”

In other crops, such as cotton, climatic conditions have favored development, combined with area gains, which should result in a production of 2,83 million tons of lint, 19,9% ​​higher than the last harvest. For beans, a total of 3,1 million tons is expected, 7,6% higher than the previous harvest. The first legume crop has finished harvesting, the second is underway and the third crop will be planted from mid-April. In the case of rice, the estimated production is 10,5 million tons, 10,5% lower than the volume of the previous harvest, with 9,7 million tons from irrigated cultivation and 0,8 million tons from the planting of rainfed. In winter crops (oats, canola, rye, barley, wheat and triticale), sowing is still in its infancy and should reach a production of 7,9 million tons for wheat.

Market

In this April survey, Conab maintained the estimate for 2022 of cotton exports at 2,05 million tons, rice at 1,3 million tons and beans at 200 thousand tons. For wheat, considering that the forecast volume exported between August 2021 and March 2022 already exceeds 2,8 million tons, an increase is expected in the period corresponding to the commercial year that runs until July. Given this, the estimate is that 3 million tons will be exported. If this number is confirmed, it will be the record in the historical series for wheat.

On the other hand, for soybeans there was a reduction in the estimated volume of exports, from 80,16 million tons to 77 million tons, motivated by a greater focus on the production and export of oil, to the detriment of the grain. Regarding corn, foreign sales should increase from 35 million tons to 37 million tons in this survey. “We believe that the increase in Brazilian production, in line with heated international demand, should promote this 77,8% increase in grain exports in the 2022 harvest, between February 2022 and January 2023”, assesses the Superintendent of Market Studies and Conab Offer Management, Allan Silveira.

In relation to the expected final stocks for the main Brazilian commodities, the superintendent confirms that, in the case of corn, the changes were not significant, with the carryover stock for the 2021/22 harvest expected at 10,84 million tons, an increase of 5,16% in relation to the last survey and 40,61% in relation to the 2020/21 harvest, as a result of the prospect of recovery in the second harvest. For soybeans, the stock at the end of this year is expected to be 2,5 million tons, practically stable in relation to the last survey, given that the largest crushing, which amounted to 42,93 million tons in the month from March to 46,5 million tons in this survey, was offset by the reduction in expected grain exports.

In relation to the average monthly prices of products in the main markets, in the month of February compared to January, there was a 0,3% reduction in the price of corn in PR. On the other hand, there was an increase of 2,4% in black beans in PR, 0,3% in cotton prices in MT, 8,8% in rice in RS, 7,6% in colored beans in SP , 4,0% in corn prices in MT, 10,4% in wheat prices in PR and 3,3% and 3,2% in soybean prices in MT and PR, respectively.

Click here and access the files with complete information from the 7th Survey of the 2021/2022 Grain Harvest.