Mango and melon are highlights in fruit projections for the next ten years

Brazilian fruits have shown increasing importance, both in the domestic and international markets. From January to June this year, the value of exports (including walnuts and chestnuts) was US$533,3 million, and the quantity exported was 483,3 thousand tons, shipped to more than 120 countries. The European Union is the main destination for national exports.

Lemons and limes, melons and mangoes are the fruits that presented the best results in terms of export value this year (January to June) – lemons and limes US$ 84,6 million, melons US$ 69 million and mangoes US$ 68,4 million . Grapes, avocados and apples also performed favorably, with $36,4 million, $30,1 million and $29,5 million in revenue, respectively.

Production projections until 2032/2033 show that the biggest increases in production should occur in melon (28,7%), mango (22,9%), apple (21,3%) and grape (16,3%).

The numbers are part of the Agribusiness Projections, Brazil 2022/23 to 2032/33 study, carried out by the Agricultural Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) and the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa).

Melon

According to sector analysts, the growth in melon production and area makes sense if Brazil manages to open new export destinations. The European market is well consolidated and the Chinese market is still under negotiation. Production uses technology, especially in Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará. 

Manga 

Recent increases in area may allow production to grow, but an interruption in area expansion is expected. As for exports, growth is expected to continue, but at a less intense pace than projected in the model.

Grapes

Increases in area in the São Francisco Valley and also the availability of productive varieties could increase production in the next decade. There were significant increases in areas in the table grape regions in the South and Southeast of the country.

Apple 

The estimate is that the apple planting area will be practically stable over the next ten years, but with productivity gains resulting from the sector's constant technological investments. There is interest in new varieties, more adapted and that can be more dense. 

Apple exports depend greatly on national supply, competitors and demand from main destinations. The tendency is for product shipments to increase. 

Orange and orange juice 

Orange production is expected to increase from 16,9 million tons in the 2023 harvest to 17,7 million tons in 2032/33. Annual growth should be around 0,5% in the next decade. 

The planted area should suffer a reduction in the coming years, falling from the current 656 thousand hectares to 572 thousand hectares. The state of São Paulo, the country's main producer, has been reducing the orange harvesting area. 

Orange juice exports are expected to increase from 2,5 million tons in 2022/23 to 3 million tons at the end of the projection period. This represents a 21,9% increase in the quantity exported. Revenue this year (January to June) was US$ 1 billion for an amount of 1,3 million tons exported, with a 75,8% global share.

Brazilian participation in the world orange juice market was 49,5% in 2022. World imports were US$3,99 billion and Brazilian exports were US$1,98 billion in the same period.