Low soil moisture remains in part of the second harvest corn zone

Part of the off-season corn zone - Goiás, Minas Gerais and São Paulo - is expected to continue with below-average soil moisture in the coming days, according to EarthDaily Agro, a company that monitors agricultural areas based on satellite image analysis. Between the north of São Paulo, Minas Gerais and part of Goiás, the volume of rainfall was 0 to 5 millimeters in the last 10 days. Despite the drought, the planting of safrinha corn is still in its infancy and it will be necessary to wait until at least mid-April before it is possible to say whether or not there will be a crop failure in these states.

In the state of São Paulo, soil humidity is 10% to 50% below the average recorded over the last 10 years and rainfall below 45 millimeters is expected over the next 14 days in most regions. There is rain forecast for the end of the first half of March, however, more rain will be needed for the second half, so that soil moisture returns to favorable levels. “In view of this, it is worth closely monitoring the weather conditions in these regions in the coming weeks, which will define crop conditions”, explains crop analyst Felippe Reis (photo below), from EarthDaily Agro.

In Minas Gerais, higher volumes of rain are expected until March 17. However, the predicted rainfall volume of 22 to 34 millimeters should not be enough to increase soil moisture to levels above average. For now, the drought allows field operations to advance (harvesting grains from the first crop and planting the second), but if rainfall remains low, safrinha corn crops could be impacted.

In Paraná, after the strong drought in recent months that resulted in the failure of the soybean harvest, the rains began to appear again at the beginning of March and should continue to be above average until the end of the first fortnight of the month, with an estimated volume of around 45 to 76 millimeters, helping to increase soil humidity and creating a favorable scenario for the beginning of the off-season corn cycle.

In Rio Grande do Sul, soil humidity has increased in recent days, mainly in the south of the state, but it still remains at an unfavorable level in most of the producing regions. Furthermore, the rains came too late to alleviate the crop failure. The NDVI (vegetation vigor) remains at a very poor level, which indicates low productivity, a result of the strong drought that occurred mainly in December, during the soybean cycle.

In Mato Grosso, rainfall has been sufficient to maintain soil moisture at a satisfactory level, and should remain close to average, enough to meet the need for corn at the beginning of the cycle. In Mato Grosso do Sul, in the next two weeks, the forecast is for accumulated precipitation to be 50 millimeters, according to the European model (ECMWF). The greater volume of rain will contribute to an increase in soil humidity, a favorable scenario for the beginning of the off-season corn cycle.