Low external demand puts pressure on soybean prices

Soybean prices have been falling sharply in Brazil at the beginning of October, mainly influenced by lower external demand – national exports in 2022 are the lowest in three years. Furthermore, Cepea researchers highlight that the devaluation of the dollar against the Real, estimates indicating record production in Brazil and the advance of the harvest in the United States reinforced the downward movement in prices. Furthermore, many sellers sought to liquidate part of the remainder of the 2021/22 harvest, in order to “make cash”.

On the export side, data from Secex shows that, in September, 4,29 million tons of soybeans were shipped, 27,8% less than in August and 11% below the volume of September/21. In 2022 (from January to September), 70,76 million tons of grain left Brazilian ports, the lowest quantity since 2019, when considering the first nine months of the year.

According to Cepea researchers, the drop in Brazilian exports is mainly due to lower demand from China.