| Agriculture

Irregular rainfall marks the start of the 2025/26 harvest

Itaú BBA report highlights uncertainties in the Midwest and good conditions for planting in the South

15.10.2025 | 14:25 (UTC -3)

Cultivar Magazine

Irregular rainfall and the progress of planting in different regions of the country are the main highlights of the October Monthly Agricultural Report, prepared by Itaú BBA's Agricultural Consulting. According to the document, delayed rainfall in the Central-West and Southeast regions has created uncertainty about the start of the 2025/26 grain harvest, while in perennial crops, the first rains have favored flowering, although continued rainfall remains a cause for concern.

In contrast, the South of the country experienced more favorable conditions, with good humidity in September boosting corn and soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná. In areas of the Central-West, especially Mato Grosso, irregular rainfall limited the sowing pace. The report also highlights the water deficit in regions of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, which could affect early crop development.

Figure 1: Accumulated between 09/28 and 10/12; Figure 2: Precipitation anomaly

Impacts on major crops

According to Itaú BBA, the first rains stimulated the flowering of café, but the lack of regularity worries producers. In the case of orange, the volume recorded so far is still insufficient to guarantee uniform flowering.

Na sugar cane, the rainfall at the end of September favored water recovery and reduced the number of fires, especially in the South and Southeast. On the other hand, the rains also caused occasional losses in cutting and grinding, interfering with the harvest rhythm.

The milder climate benefited the wheat during grain filling and harvest progress in Paraná and São Paulo, where yields were satisfactory, offsetting occasional frost damage. In Rio Grande do Sul, despite lower investment in cereals this season, recent rains and moderate temperatures favored crop development.

Figure 3: accumulated between October 13 and 19; Figure 4: accumulated between October 20 and 26

La Niña is expected to influence rainfall patterns until 2026

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed in October the action of the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to persist until the beginning of 2026. For Brazil, the expectation is for more regular rainfall in the Center-West and part of the Southeast, which tends to benefit the initial development of soybeans in these regions.

However, the south of the country requires special attention, as La Niña is usually associated with reduced rainfall and a greater risk of prolonged droughts, especially in Rio Grande do Sul and part of Santa Catarina.

Even so, as this is a low-intensity episode, current climate models indicate sufficient rainfall volumes for good productivity throughout the harvest, including in Rio Grande do Sul - a scenario that, according to the report, brings some optimism for the development of the 2025/26 season.