Inmet: weather forecast for the week of August 4th to 11th

The National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) forecasts contrasting weather conditions across Brazil's regions for the week of August 4th to 11th. While areas in the North, South, and part of the Central-West are expected to experience significant rainfall—with the possibility of strong winds and hail in the South—other areas, such as the interior of the Northeast and part of the Southeast, will experience predominantly dry weather and low relative humidity, increasing the risk of fires.

In the North Region, areas of instability will be concentrated in the northwest and central portions of Amazonas, Roraima, and northwestern Pará, with rainfall volumes potentially exceeding 60 mm. In contrast, in the southern portions of Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia, south-central Pará, and Tocantins, no rainfall is forecast throughout the week. In these areas, relative humidity is expected to decrease, potentially reaching levels below 30%, as shown in Figure 1, requiring special attention to the risk of fires.

In the interior of the Northeast region, there is no forecast of rain, with reduced relative humidity, especially in the interior of the region (Figure 1). In small areas of the northeastern coast, rainfall above 20 mm (green tones) may occur, mainly on the coast of Alagoas and Pernambuco.

In the Central-West region, the week begins with rain in the southern and western portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and southwestern Mato Grosso, with volumes above 30 mm. In the remaining areas, the forecast indicates predominantly stable weather and relative humidity below 30% in the coming days, mainly in northern Mato Grosso (Figure 1).

For the Southeast region, the forecast is for stable weather across most of the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo. However, rain is expected only in the eastern part of the Southeast region in the coming days, with accumulated rainfall levels that could exceed 15 mm. Also noteworthy is the drop in relative humidity, with values that could fall below 30%, especially in southern São Paulo (Figure 1).

For the Southern Region, rainfall accumulations exceeding 40 mm are forecast between today (August 04) and tomorrow (August 08), especially in northern Rio Grande do Sul, eastern Santa Catarina, and west-central Paraná. These areas are also likely to experience strong winds and isolated hail. Furthermore, the formation of an extratropical cyclone over the ocean on August 05 could bring rain and winds to north-central Rio Grande do Sul and southern Santa Catarina, with volumes exceeding 08 mm.

Temperature

Throughout the week, the forecast indicates high maximum temperatures for much of the North, western Northeast, and northern Central-West regions. The highest temperatures are expected in south-central Pará, northern Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Maranhão, and Piauí, especially on August 10 (dark pink tones in Figure 2), where highs could exceed 34°C. On the eastern coast of the Northeast, southern Central-West and Southeast regions, and Paraná, highs are expected to range between 20°C and 28°C (yellow and orange tones in Figure 2), while in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, highs below 18°C are expected (blue tones in Figure 2).

Minimum temperatures are expected to remain above 22°C in the North Region, northern Northeast, and northern Central-West Region. In the South and Southeast regions of the country, as well as inland Bahia, the Federal District, and southern Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, minimum temperatures below 18°C are expected throughout the week. Between August 05th and 07th, minimum temperatures will remain below 8°C in southern Rio Grande do Sul and the mountainous regions of this state and Santa Catarina. Light frosts are possible in isolated areas. Starting on August 09th, the arrival of a new cold air mass is expected to bring temperatures below 10°C throughout the South Region, as well as southern Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo.