Inmet: weather forecast between September 18th and October 4th, 2023

In the first week, between the 18th and 25th of September 2023, the largest accumulations are expected in Rio Grande do Sul, in addition to the northwest of the country

18.09.2023 | 15:51 (UTC -3)
Inmet, Cultivar edition

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) concluded today (18/9), the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between September 18th and 25th, 2023, the largest accumulations are expected in Rio Grande do Sul, in addition to the northwest of the country.

In the central portion of Brazil and the interior of the Northeast region, hot and dry weather is expected to prevail throughout the week. Check the detailed weather forecast for each region of the country for the next two weeks.

Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (18/09/2023 and 25/09/2023); source: Inmet
Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (18/09/2023 and 25/09/2023); source: Inmet

Forecast for the 1st week (18/09/2023 to 25/09/2023):

North region: Rain accumulations greater than 50 millimeters (mm) are predicted in areas of northwestern Amazonas and Pará, as well as Acre and Roraima due to the heat and high humidity. In other areas of the region, there will be a predominance of dry weather and no rain.

Northeast Region: the weather continues with varying cloudiness and passing rain across the entire coastal strip, but mainly between the coast of Rio Grande do Norte and Alagoas, throughout the week, due to the transport of moisture from the ocean. In other areas, such as Matopiba (an area that covers the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) and the interior of the region, the forecast is for hot weather and low humidity.

Midwest and Southeast Regions: the persistence of a mass of hot, dry air will leave the weather stable, without rain and low humidity. However, at the beginning of the week, localized storms may occur in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, south of Goiás, São Paulo, Triângulo and south of Minas, which should be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and possible hail.

South region: Instability remains in the region with a chance of localized storms that are expected to be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and possible hail. Pay special attention to Rio Grande do Sul, where, in addition to storms, locally significant volumes can occur.

In the second week, between September 26th and October 4th, 2023, the week may present significant accumulations of rain due to the convergence of humidity from areas of the Amazon crossing the entire Brazilian territory to the east of the Southeast region, in addition to the northeast of the Region South.

In the northern part of the country and the interior of the Northeast region, dry weather and no rain are expected throughout the week.

Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (26/09/2023 and 04/10/2023); source: GFS
Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (26/09/2023 and 04/10/2023); source: GFS

Forecast for the 2st week (26/09/2023 to 04/10/2023):

North region: Accumulations greater than 50 mm are predicted in western Amazonas, Acre and Rondônia. In the northeast of Amazonas, Roraima and southern Pará, the forecast is for low accumulated rainfall. In other areas, there is no rain forecast.

Northeast Region: the weather continues with varying cloud cover and temporary rain across the entire coastal strip. In other areas, such as Matopiba (an area that covers the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), the north and interior of the region, the forecast is for hot weather with low humidity.

Midwest and Southeast Regions: the forecast is for rain due to the convergence of humidity from Amazonas, with values ​​that could exceed 50 mm, mainly in Rio de Janeiro, southeast of Minas Gerais and southwest of Mato Grosso, in addition to areas between Goiás and the Federal District.

South region: the forecast is for significant rainfall accumulations, exceeding 50 mm, in areas of Santa Catarina, Paraná and the extreme south of Rio Grande do Sul. In other areas, accumulations of less than 15 mm may occur.

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