Inmet: weather forecast between October 21th and 28st, 2024

The week will be marked by large volumes of rain in the central region of the country. Figure 1 shows the forecast for accumulated rainfall, according to the Cosmo numerical model of the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), indicating that volumes may exceed 100 mm in some locations in Amazonas, Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná (represented in shades of red and pink).

Forecast for October 21-28, 2024

For Northern Region, areas of instability associated with heat and high humidity will cause rain showers throughout the week, with values ​​above 50 mm in the central-western part of Amazonas, and may exceed 100 mm in some locations. Accumulations of up to 50 mm associated with rain showers may occur in Acre, Rondônia, Tocantins and southern Pará. In other areas of the Region, isolated rains may occur, with the exception of northern Pará and part of Amapá, where the chance of rain is low.

Na North East Region The forecast is for hot and dry weather in much of the region. However, on Tuesday (23/10), there is a tendency for increased cloudiness, especially in the west of Bahia, south of Piauí and Maranhão, which may generate instability, resulting in isolated showers. In addition, there are conditions for showers and isolated thunderstorms over the coast of Bahia, with accumulations that may exceed 20 mm, mainly in the south of this state.

To the Midwest Regions e Southeast, heavy rains are expected, especially on Tuesday (22/10), over Goiás and western Minas Gerais. From Thursday (24/10), the formation of an extratropical cyclone in the south of the country will favor the alignment of a convergence region, causing heavy rains and storms in São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. Areas of instability may also cause isolated rains in the south of Goiás, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais, as well as in Rio de Janeiro, where rainfall volumes above 60 mm are expected.

Na South, the week begins with stable weather in much of the Region. Between the night of Wednesday (23) and the early hours of Thursday (24), the formation of an extratropical cyclone will favor the occurrence of rain in the Region, which may be locally heavy until 25/10. Accumulations above 100 mm may occur in the west of Paraná and the center-west of the Southern Plateau of Santa Catarina, while in the west and south of Rio Grande do Sul, strong winds are expected, which may vary between 50 and 70 km/h.