Inmet: weather forecast between October 16th and 31st, 2023

In the first week, between the 16th and 23rd of October 2023, the highest volumes of rain are predicted in the center-south of the country

16.10.2023 | 16:52 (UTC -3)
inmet

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) concluded today (16/10) the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between October 16th and 23rd, 2023, the highest volumes of rain are predicted in the center-south of the country, especially in the South Region.

In areas of the Northeast and Central-West regions and in the east of the North Region, the forecast is for high temperatures, dry weather and low humidity for practically the entire week.

Check out the detailed weather forecast for each region of the country for the next two weeks below.

Forecast for the 1st week (16/10/2023 to 23/10/2023):

For the North Region, rainfall volumes exceeding 30 millimeters (mm) are predicted in areas of northwestern Amazonas and Pará, in Roraima and western Acre, due to the heat and high humidity. In other areas of the region, there will be a predominance of dry weather and no rain.

In a large part of the Northeast Region, there is a forecast of dry weather without rain, in addition to low relative humidity values, mainly in areas of Matopiba (an area that covers the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) and the interior of the region.

In the Central-West Region, mostly dry days are expected. However, rain showers may occur in the west of Mato Grosso and south of Goiás, while in the extreme south of Mato Grosso do Sul, the forecast indicates more intense rains, with instabilities resulting from low pressure areas, which may accumulate volumes greater than 50 mm .

In the Southeast Region, the advance of a cold front over the ocean, in addition to areas of instability, especially in the east of the region, will favor accumulations of rain that could exceed 50 mm, especially in areas in the south of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo , in addition to Rio de Janeiro. On the other hand, in the center and north of Minas Gerais, the forecast is for predominantly hot and dry weather.

In the South Region, areas of instability associated with a low pressure center and the advance of a cold front over the ocean, will favor conditions for significant rainfall and the possibility of hail in a large part of the region. In the west of Santa Catarina and south of Paraná, rainfall accumulations greater than 80 mm are predicted during the week, while in the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul, the accumulations may be even more significant, exceeding 150 mm. In the north of Paraná and in the extreme south of Rio Grande do Sul, the rainfall accumulations should be slightly lower, remaining below 50 mm.

In the second week, between October 24th and 31st, 2023, large amounts of rain, greater than 90 mm, may reach areas in the South and Southeast regions and in the northwest of the North Region. 

In areas of Central Brazil and southern Matopiba (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), accumulated lows of less than 50 mm may occur, while in the extreme north of the country, dry weather and no rain are expected throughout the week.

Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (16/10/2023 to 23/10/2023); source: Inmet
Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (16/10/2023 to 23/10/2023); source: Inmet

Forecast for the 2st week (24/10/2023 to 31/10/2023):

For the North Region, rainfall is expected to exceed 50 mm in much of the region, especially in the northwest of Amazonas and Acre. In Amapá and northeastern Pará, dry weather and no rain will predominate.

In the Northeast Region, low accumulated rainfall, less than 50 mm, is predicted in the south of the region. However, in areas of central-southern Bahia, volumes may exceed 50 mm, while in the extreme north, there will be dry weather and no rain throughout the week.

In much of the Central-West and Southeast regions, there is a forecast of accumulated lows, which should not exceed 50 mm. However, in eastern areas of the Southeast Region, rainfall volumes may be greater than 70 mm, especially in São Paulo and Minas Gerais.

In the South Region, there is a forecast of significant rainfall accumulations greater than 80 mm, especially in the north of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and south of Paraná. In other areas, volumes may be less than 50 mm.

Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (24/10/2023 to 31/10/2023); source: GFS
Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (24/10/2023 to 31/10/2023); source: GFS

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