Inmet: weather forecast between May 6th and 22nd, 2024

In Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, large volumes of rain are expected due to the action of a frontal system in the south of the country

06.05.2024 | 16:35 (UTC -3)
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The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) today concluded the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between the 6th and 13th of May, the week could present large amounts of rain, which could exceed 70 millimeters (mm) - shades in red -, especially in the north of the country. This is due to the combination of heat and high humidity, in addition to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which continues to influence instability in the region and cause intense rains.

In Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, large volumes of rain are expected due to the action of a frontal system in the south of the country.

Forecast for the 1st week (06/05/2024 to 13/05/2024):

Northern Region: the persistence of the ZCIT will cause rain showers throughout the week, with amounts greater than 60,0 mm in areas of central-north Amazonas and Pará, as well as in the states of Roraima and Amapá. These rains can be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and thunderstorms. In other areas, isolated rain showers with minor accumulations cannot be ruled out. 

Northeast Region: The presence of the ZCIT could cause rain in the northern part of the region, mainly in the northwest of Maranhão, where rainfall volumes could exceed 70 mm. On the east coast, instabilities in the region due to the transport of moisture from the ocean to the continent will favor the occurrence of rain, mainly in areas of Sealba (an area that covers the states of Sergipe, Alagoas and Bahia), with volumes that can exceed 40 mm . In the interior of the region, the forecast is for hot weather and no rain.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: it will be hot and dry weather, except in areas of northeastern Minas Gerais and northern Espírito Santo, where rapid and temporary rains should occur.

South region: the week begins with a storm forecast due to an area of ​​low atmospheric pressure that should favor the formation of instabilities in areas of the extreme south of Rio Grande do Sul, with volumes that can exceed 100 mm in twenty four hours, with winds of 100km/h and possible hail. However, between the 8th and 9th of May, the rapid passage of a frontal system will cause rain that may be accompanied by thunderstorms and gusts of wind over Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. In this way, Inmet highlights the importance of following weather forecast updates and special weather warnings on the website and social media.

Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (06/05/2024 and 13/05/2024); source: Inmet
Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (06/05/2024 and 13/05/2024); source: Inmet

In the second week, between May 14th and 22th, 2024, the week may present rainfall volumes greater than 70 mm in the north and south of the country.

Forecast for the 2st week (14/05/2024 to 22/05/2024):

North region: The largest rainfall accumulations should occur in the north center of Amazonas, west of Acre, Roraima, north of Pará and Amapá, with accumulations that could exceed 70 mm. In other areas, volumes should be less than 40 mm and in some locations in Tocantins and southern Pará, there is no rain forecast.

Northeast Region: the forecast is for rain in the form of showers that could exceed 40 mm in the north of the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará and the eastern part of the region. In other areas, lower rainfall accumulations are expected. 

Midwest Regions e Southeast: the forecast is for dry and hot weather, in much of the region except in the east of the Southeast Region, extreme south of Mato Grosso do Sul, where rapid and temporary rains may occur, with volumes of less than 20 mm.

South region: the forecast is for rain showers that could exceed 70 mm in the center-east of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, in addition to the south of Paraná. In the rest of the region, the forecast is for lower accumulations.

Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (14/05/2024 and 22/05/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA
Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (14/05/2024 and 22/05/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA
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