Inmet: weather forecast between March 18th and April 3rd, 2024

Between the 18th and 25th of March, the week could see large amounts of rain, which could exceed 100 mm

18.03.2024 | 15:45 (UTC -3)
inmet

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) today concluded the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between the 18th and 25th of March, the week could present large amounts of rain, which could exceed 100 millimeters (shades in red), especially in the center-north of the country, due to the combination of heat and high humidity, in addition of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ZCIT) that continues to influence instability in the extreme north of Brazil, causing intense rains. 

Forecast for the 1st week (18/03/2024 to 25/03/2024):

North region: Rain showers are forecast, with amounts that could exceed 100 millimeters (mm), mainly in areas of Amazonas, Pará, Rondônia and Tocantins. The occasional occurrence of more intense rains, accompanied by gusts of wind and thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out.

Northeast Region: Rains are expected to continue especially in the north of the region, where totals could be around 100 mm. Areas in the states of Maranhão, Piauí and Ceará are expected to record the highest rainfall. In the east of the region, rainfall is expected to be less intense compared to the previous week, with amounts around 40 mm.

Midwest region: Rains are expected to be a little more regular in part of the region during the week. In the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás, rainfall totals could be around 70 mm. On the other hand, in Mato Grosso do Sul, rain is expected to be irregular, with a total of around 40 mm.

Southeast region: the forecast indicates greater total rainfall in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Vale do Paraíba and the north coast of São Paulo and in the south and Zona da Mata of Minas Gerais, with values ​​around 80 mm. Occasionally, more intense rain may be recorded, accompanied by gusts of wind and thunderstorms and, therefore, it is necessary to monitor the weather forecast and Inmet's severe weather warnings daily.

South region: there will be isolated storms especially in areas of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. The total rainfall could be around 80 mm.

Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (18/25 to 03/2024); source: Inmet
Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (18/25 to 03/2024); source: Inmet

In the second week, between March 26th and April 03rd, 2024. According to the numerical forecast model, the week could see rainfall volumes greater than 90 mm in the North, Northeast and Central-West regions.

Forecast for the 2st week (26/03/2024 to 03/04/2024):

North region: the period will still be very rainy. Accumulations greater than 90 mm are expected, but mainly in areas of Amazonas, Amapá, Pará and Tocantins.

Northeast Region: The forecast is for rain that, locally, could be heavy and exceed 90 mm in the center-north and along the entire east coast of the Region. In other areas, rains are expected to be more irregular and less intense.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: Rain showers are forecast, but they could be locally heavy and exceed 80 mm. The rains are expected to be more intense in the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás. In other areas, the forecast is for smaller rainfall accumulations, which could be around 30 mm.

South region: The forecast is for irregular rain, with totals that could be around 50 mm.

Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (26/03 to 03/04/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA
Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (26/03 to 03/04/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA

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