Inmet: weather forecast between June 03rd and 19th, 2024

The week begins with isolated rain in Rio Grande do Sul, in addition to showers in the North Region and the Eastern Range of the Northeast Region

03.06.2024 | 15:40 (UTC -3)
inmet

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) today concluded the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between the 03rd and 10th of June, the week may present rainfall that may exceed 60 mm (orange tones), mainly in areas of the Northern Regions. This is due to the combination of heat and high humidity that continues to influence instability in the regions. In the eastern part of the country, rainfall should benefit due to the transport of moisture from the ocean to the continent.

Forecast for the 1st week (03/06/2024 to 10/06/2024):

North region: The combination of heat and high humidity will cause rain showers throughout the week, with amounts greater than 60,0 mm in areas of north-central Amazonas and Pará, as well as in the states of Roraima and Amapá. In other areas, isolated rain showers with minor accumulations cannot be ruled out.

Eastern range of the Northeast Region: there is a forecast of rain, especially between the states of Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Pernambuco, as well as the south of Bahia. Instabilities in these areas are caused by the transport of moisture from the ocean to the continent, which will favor the occurrence of rainfall, which can exceed 40 mm. Isolated rain showers cannot be ruled out in areas of the northern range, from Maranhão to Rio Grande do Norte. While in the interior of the region, the forecast is for hot weather and no rain.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: There is no rain forecast, except in areas of northeastern Minas Gerais, northern Espírito Santo and eastern São Paulo, where rapid and temporary rains are expected due to the passage of a frontal system.

South region: the week begins with isolated rain due to the rapid passage of a frontal system, in addition to wind gusts that can exceed 60 km. But from the 05th onwards, the forecast is for good weather and no rain. Furthermore, the forecast indicates a drop in temperatures, especially at the beginning of the week.

Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (27/05/2024 and 03/06/2024); source: Inmet
Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (27/05/2024 and 03/06/2024); source: Inmet

Figure 2 presents the rain forecast for the second week, between the 11th and 19th of June 2024. According to the numerical forecast model, the week may present volumes of rain greater than 70 mm in the north of the North and northern and eastern bands of the Northeast Region.

Forecast for the 2st week (11/06/2024 to 19/06/2024):

North region: The largest rainfall accumulations are expected to occur in the northwest of Amazonas, northern Pará, Roraima, in addition to areas in eastern Amapá with accumulations that can exceed 60 mm. In other areas, volumes must be less than 50 mm.

Northeast Region: The forecast is for rain in the form of showers that could exceed 60 mm. In the interior of the region, the forecast is for hot and dry weather.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: Dry and hot weather continues to be forecast, except in areas of Espírito Santo and northeast of Minas Gerais, where rapid and temporary rains may occur, with volumes of less than 40 mm.

South region: the forecast is for rapid and temporary rains, with accumulations that could exceed 30 mm, in Santa Catarina and northwest of Rio Grande do Sul.

Figure 2: forecast for the 2nd week (04/06/2024 to 12/06/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA
Figure 2: forecast for the 2nd week (04/06/2024 to 12/06/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA

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